Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Caterpillar Inc (CAT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Caterpillar, Inc. engages in the manufacture of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. It provides technology for construction, transportation, mining, forestry, energy, logistics, electronics, financing, and electric power generation. It operates through the following segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy & Transportation, Financial Products, and All Other. The Construction Industries segment supports customers using machinery in infrastructure and building construction applications. The Resource Industries segment responsible for supporting customers using machinery in mining and quarrying applications and it includes business strategy, product design, product management, and development, manufacturing, marketing and sales and product support. The Energy & Transportation segment supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail, and industrial applications. The Financial Products segment line business provides a wide range of financing alternatives to customers and dealers for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines as well as other equipment and marine vessels. The All Other segments includes activities such as; the business strategy, product management and development, and manufacturing of filters and fluids, undercarriage, tires and rims, engaging tools, and fluid transfers. The company was founded on April 15, 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, IL.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$94,374,317,018||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.35||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-31.05%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||42.51||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||7.04||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.35||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||2.51||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-4.25%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$54.10|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$31.72|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||17.01%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Caterpillar Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $5.79 in 2014 to an estimated $3.73 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 17.01% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Caterpillar Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $63.57. The company pays a dividend of $3.1 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 42.51, which was above the industry average of 25.98. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-44.46.
Caterpillar Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$44.46|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||4|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||12/1/2017|
|Total Current Assets||$36,244,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$26,931,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||607,700,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$7.80|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.73|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.