Chemicals Stocks

DowDuPont Inc Valuation – February 2018 $DWDP

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): DowDuPont, Inc. operates as a holding company, which develops specialty materials, chemicals, and agricultural products. It operates through the following divisions: Agriculture, Materials Science and Specialty Products divisions. The Agriculture division offers a complete portfolio of products and technologies, and a robust pipeline of germplasm, traits and crop protection. The Materials Science division focuses to its market segments, offering a broad and deep portfolio of products and technologies to help customers. The Specialty Products division operates through the five businesses: Electronic Technologies, Protection Solutions, Nutrition & Health, Industrial Biosciences and Sustainable Solutions. The company is headquartered in Midland, MI.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DWDP – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $171,427,692,032 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.91 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 101.71% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.67 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.71 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.91 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.26 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.23
MG Growth Estimate 4.66%
MG Value $57.55
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $46.85
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.47
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.09%
Current Price $73.26
% of Intrinsic Value 127.29%

DowDuPont Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.47 in 2014 to an estimated $3.23 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.09% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into DowDuPont Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $60.71. The company pays a dividend of $1.76 per share, for a yield of 2.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.67, which was below the industry average of 30.04, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.88.

DowDuPont Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.88
Graham Number $60.71
PEmg 22.67
Current Ratio 1.91
PB Ratio 1.71
Current Dividend $1.76
Dividend Yield 2.40%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $49,893,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $26,128,000,000
Long-Term Debt $30,056,000,000
Total Assets $192,164,000,000
Intangible Assets $92,801,000,000
Total Liabilities $91,834,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,346,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.82
Dec2017 $0.91
Dec2016 $3.52
Dec2015 $6.15
Dec2014 $2.87
Dec2013 $3.68
Dec2012 $0.70
Dec2011 $2.05
Dec2010 $1.72
Dec2009 $0.32
Dec2008 $0.62
Dec2007 $2.99
Dec2006 $3.82
Dec2005 $4.62
Dec2004 $2.93
Dec2003 $1.87
Dec2002 -$0.37
Dec2001 -$0.43
Dec2000 $2.22
Dec1999 $1.97
Dec1998 $1.92

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.23
Dec2017 $3.10
Dec2016 $3.92
Dec2015 $3.78
Dec2014 $2.47
Dec2013 $2.07
Dec2012 $1.21
Dec2011 $1.49
Dec2010 $1.44
Dec2009 $1.69
Dec2008 $2.58
Dec2007 $3.45
Dec2006 $3.32
Dec2005 $2.62
Dec2004 $1.49
Dec2003 $0.87
Dec2002 $0.60

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Dividend Stock Investor – June 2016
10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016
10 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Dividend Stock Investor – February 2016
18 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 1/30/16
Dow Chemical Co Valuation – January 2016 Update $DOW

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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