Financial Services Stocks

Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – February 2018 $GS

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. engages in global investment banking, securities, and investment management, which provides a range of financial services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals. It operates through the following business segments: Investment Banking, Institutional Client Services, Investing & Lending, and Investment Management. The Investment Banking segment focuses on the provision of financial advisory services public and private sector clients around the world. The Institutional Client Services segment facilitates clients regarding buy and sell financial products, raise funding and manage risk. The Investing & Lending segment includes the company’s investing and relationship lending activities across various asset classes. The Investment Management segment deals with the provision of investment and wealth advisory services. The company was founded by Marcus Goldman in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

GS Chart

GS data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of GS – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $100,625,995,727 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 13.76% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.69 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.27 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $15.08
MG Growth Estimate 1.03%
MG Value $159.15
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $218.72
MG Value based on 0% Growth $128.21
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.59%
Current Price $266.77
% of Intrinsic Value 167.62%

Goldman Sachs Group Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $14.12 in 2014 to an estimated $15.08 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.59% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Goldman Sachs Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $312.77. The company pays a dividend of $2.9 per share, for a yield of 1.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.69, which was below the industry average of 21.55, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $312.77
PEmg 17.69
PB Ratio 1.27
Dividend Yield 1.09%
TTM Dividend $2.90
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $265,000,000,000
Total Assets $917,000,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $835,000,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 389,800,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $20.00
Dec2017 $9.01
Dec2016 $16.29
Dec2015 $12.14
Dec2014 $17.07
Dec2013 $15.46
Dec2012 $14.13
Dec2011 $4.51
Dec2010 $13.18
Dec2009 $22.13
Nov2008 $4.47
Nov2007 $24.73
Nov2006 $19.69
Nov2005 $11.21
Nov2004 $8.92
Nov2003 $5.87
Nov2002 $4.03
Nov2001 $4.26
Nov2000 $6.00
Nov1999 $5.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $15.08
Dec2017 $13.08
Dec2016 $15.08
Dec2015 $13.88
Dec2014 $14.12
Dec2013 $13.06
Dec2012 $11.80
Dec2011 $11.69
Dec2010 $15.80
Dec2009 $16.89
Nov2008 $14.11
Nov2007 $17.32
Nov2006 $12.39
Nov2005 $8.11
Nov2004 $6.31
Nov2003 $5.05
Nov2002 $4.42

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – June 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – May 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – March 2016
5 Undervalued Companies for Enterprising Investors Near 52 Week Lows – February 2016
12 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/14/15

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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