Pharmaceuticals Stocks

Johnson & Johnson Valuation – February 2018 $JNJ

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Johnson & Johnson is an investment holding company with interests in health care products. It engages in research and development, manufacture and sale of personal care hygienic products, pharmaceuticals and surgical equipment. The company operates through the following business segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices. The Consumer segment includes products used in the baby care, skin care, oral care, wound care and women’s health care fields, as well as nutritional and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products, and wellness and prevention platforms. Its baby care franchise includes the JOHNSON’S Baby line of products. The Pharmaceutical segment includes products in the anti-infective, antipsychotic, contraceptive, gastrointestinal, hematology, immunology, infectious diseases, neurology, oncology, pain management, thrombosis and vaccines. The Medical Devices segment includes products distributed to wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, used principally in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, and clinics. It include products to treat cardiovascular disease; orthopaedic and neurological products; blood glucose monitoring and insulin delivery products; general surgery, biosurgical, and energy products; professional diagnostic products; infection prevention products; and disposable contact lenses. Johnson & Johnson was founded by Robert Wood Johnson I, James Wood Johnson and Edward Mead Johnson Sr. in 1886 and is headquartered in New Brunswick, NJ.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of JNJ – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $354,674,411,451 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.41 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 13.81% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 25.91 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.02 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.41 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.44 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.10
MG Growth Estimate 1.13%
MG Value $54.82
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $73.88
MG Value based on 0% Growth $43.31
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.70%
Current Price $132.02
% of Intrinsic Value 240.84%

Johnson & Johnson does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.74 in 2014 to an estimated $5.1 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.7% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Johnson & Johnson revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $63.59. The company pays a dividend of $3.32 per share, for a yield of 2.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.91, which was below the industry average of 28.67, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.71.

Johnson & Johnson receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$19.71
Graham Number $63.59
PEmg 25.91
Current Ratio 1.41
PB Ratio 6.02
Current Dividend $3.32
Dividend Yield 2.51%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $43,088,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $30,537,000,000
Long-Term Debt $30,675,000,000
Total Assets $157,303,000,000
Intangible Assets $85,134,000,000
Total Liabilities $97,143,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,742,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.02
Dec2017 $0.47
Dec2016 $5.93
Dec2015 $5.48
Dec2014 $5.70
Dec2013 $4.81
Dec2012 $3.86
Dec2011 $3.49
Dec2010 $4.78
Dec2009 $4.40
Dec2008 $4.57
Dec2007 $3.63
Dec2006 $3.73
Dec2005 $3.35
Dec2004 $2.74
Dec2003 $2.29
Dec2002 $2.16
Dec2001 $1.84
Dec2000 $1.61
Dec1999 $1.39
Dec1998 $1.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.10
Dec2017 $3.91
Dec2016 $5.48
Dec2015 $5.06
Dec2014 $4.74
Dec2013 $4.26
Dec2012 $4.06
Dec2011 $4.17
Dec2010 $4.41
Dec2009 $4.13
Dec2008 $3.87
Dec2007 $3.39
Dec2006 $3.13
Dec2005 $2.72
Dec2004 $2.31
Dec2003 $2.01
Dec2002 $1.79

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

4 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 1/28/17
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – January 2017
Johnson & Johnson Valuation – January 2017 $JNJ
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – December 2016
Johnson & Johnson Valuation – August 2016 $JNJ

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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