Restaurants Stocks

McDonald’s Corporation Valuation – February 2018 $MCD

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): McDonald’s Corp. engages in the franchise and management of restaurant chains. It operates through the following segments: U.S.; International Lead Markets; High Growth Markets; Foundational Markets & Corporate. The U.S. segment manages fast food restaurants and provides mobile application for promos and orders. The International Lead Markets segment operates in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The High Growth Markets segment expands its franchise and store operations in China, Italy, Korea, Poland, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. The Foundational Markets & Corporate segment refers to the firm’s administrative activities. The company was founded by Raymond Albert Kroc on April 15, 1955 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, IL.

MCD Chart

MCD data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MCD – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $129,989,098,133 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.28 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 35.32% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 26.70 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -38.14 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.28 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 27.05 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.11
MG Growth Estimate 2.73%
MG Value $85.30
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $88.57
MG Value based on 0% Growth $51.92
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.10%
Current Price $163.06
% of Intrinsic Value 191.15%

McDonald’s Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.17 in 2014 to an estimated $6.11 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 9.1% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into McDonald’s Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $3.83 per share, for a yield of 2.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 26.7, which was below the industry average of 33.24, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-38.41.

McDonald’s Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$38.41
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 26.70
Current Ratio 1.28
PB Ratio -38.14
Current Dividend $3.83
Dividend Yield 2.35%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2017
Total Current Assets $4,790,300,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,740,200,000
Long-Term Debt $28,402,600,000
Total Assets $32,559,600,000
Intangible Assets $2,373,300,000
Total Liabilities $36,037,200,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 813,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.08
Dec2017 $6.37
Dec2016 $5.44
Dec2015 $4.80
Dec2014 $4.82
Dec2013 $5.55
Dec2012 $5.36
Dec2011 $5.27
Dec2010 $4.58
Dec2009 $4.11
Dec2008 $3.76
Dec2007 $1.98
Dec2006 $2.83
Dec2005 $2.04
Dec2004 $1.79
Dec2003 $1.15
Dec2002 $0.70
Dec2001 $1.25
Dec2000 $1.46
Dec1999 $1.39
Dec1998 $1.10

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.11
Dec2017 $5.55
Dec2016 $5.15
Dec2015 $5.06
Dec2014 $5.17
Dec2013 $5.22
Dec2012 $4.91
Dec2011 $4.43
Dec2010 $3.83
Dec2009 $3.28
Dec2008 $2.74
Dec2007 $2.14
Dec2006 $2.05
Dec2005 $1.56
Dec2004 $1.31
Dec2003 $1.11
Dec2002 $1.12

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Overvalued Dow Components – December 2016
McDonald’s Corp Valuation – November 2016 $MCD
5 Overvalued Dow Components – July 2016
McDonald’s Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $MCD
McDonald’s Corporation – November 2015 Update $MCD

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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