Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Procter & Gamble Co. engages in the provision of branded consumer packaged goods. It operates through the following segments: Beauty, Grooming, Health Care, Fabric and Home Care, and Baby, Feminine and Family Care. The Beauty segment offers hair, skin, and personal care. The Grooming segment comprises of shave care like female and male blades and razors, pre and post shave products, and appliances. The Health Care segment includes oral care products like toothbrushes, toothpaste, and personal health care such as gastrointestinal, rapid diagnostics, respiratory, and vitamins, minerals, and supplements. The Fabric and Home Care segment consist of fabric enhancers, laundry additives and detergents, and air, dish, and surface care. The Baby, Feminine and Family Care segment sells baby wipes, diapers, and pants, adult incontinence, feminine care, paper towels, tissues, and toilet paper. The company was founded by William Procter and James Gamble in 1837 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, OH.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$204,327,307,733||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.94||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||6.75%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||19.75||Pass|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||4.00||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.94||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-11.72||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||0.80%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$59.52|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$34.89|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||5.62%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||195.37%|
Procter & Gamble Co does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.9 in 2014 to an estimated $4.1 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.62% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Procter & Gamble Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $42.87. The company pays a dividend of $2.7 per share, for a yield of 3.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.75, which was below the industry average of 28.39, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.48.
Procter & Gamble Co receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$15.48|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||20|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||12/1/2017|
|Total Current Assets||$31,214,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$33,107,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||2,669,600,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.85|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.10|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.