Media Entertainment Stocks

Walt Disney Co Valuation – February 2018 $DIS

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): The Walt Disney Co. is a diversified international family entertainment and media enterprise. It operates through four business segments: Media Networks, Parks & Resorts, Studio Entertainment and Consumer Products & Interactive Media. The Media Networks segment includes cable and broadcast television networks, television production and distribution operations, domestic television stations, radio networks and stations. The Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida; the Disneyland Resort in California; Aulani, a Disney Resort & Spa in Hawaii; the Disney Vacation Club; the Disney Cruise Line; and Adventures by Disney. The Studio Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures, direct-to-video content, musical recordings and live stage plays. This segment distributes films primarily under the Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm and Touchstone banners. The Consumer Products and Interactive Media segment licenses the company’s trade names, characters and visual and literary properties to various manufacturers, game developers, publishers and retailers throughout the world. It also develops and publishes games, primarily for mobile platforms, and books, magazines and comic books. This segment also distributes branded merchandise directly through retail, online and wholesale businesses. The Walt Disney was founded by Walter Elias Disney on October 16, 1923 and is headquartered in Burbank, CA.

DIS Chart

DIS data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DIS – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $165,118,605,619 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.87 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 175.91% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 19.62 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.86 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.87 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -7.72 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.60
MG Growth Estimate 9.56%
MG Value $154.59
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $81.16
MG Value based on 0% Growth $47.58
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.56%
Current Price $109.81
% of Intrinsic Value 71.03%

Walt Disney Co does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.42 in 2014 to an estimated $5.6 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.56% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Walt Disney Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $60.93. The company pays a dividend of $1.56 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.62, which was below the industry average of 52.62, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.44.

Walt Disney Co receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.44
Graham Number $60.93
PEmg 19.62
Current Ratio 0.87
PB Ratio 3.86
Current Dividend $1.56
Dividend Yield 1.42%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $17,274,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $19,875,000,000
Long-Term Debt $20,082,000,000
Total Assets $97,734,000,000
Intangible Assets $38,360,000,000
Total Liabilities $54,445,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,521,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.99
Sep2017 $5.69
Sep2016 $5.73
Sep2015 $4.90
Sep2014 $4.26
Sep2013 $3.38
Sep2012 $3.13
Sep2011 $2.52
Sep2010 $2.03
Sep2009 $1.76
Sep2008 $2.28
Sep2007 $2.25
Sep2006 $1.64
Sep2005 $1.19
Sep2004 $1.07
Sep2003 $0.59
Sep2002 $0.60
Sep2001 -$0.02
Sep2000 $0.57
Sep1999 $0.62
Sep1998 $0.89

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.60
Sep2017 $5.20
Sep2016 $4.73
Sep2015 $4.03
Sep2014 $3.42
Sep2013 $2.85
Sep2012 $2.51
Sep2011 $2.19
Sep2010 $2.01
Sep2009 $1.94
Sep2008 $1.92
Sep2007 $1.61
Sep2006 $1.20
Sep2005 $0.88
Sep2004 $0.67
Sep2003 $0.47
Sep2002 $0.45

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Walt Disney Co Valuation – March 2017 $DIS
Walt Disney Co Valuation – December 2015 Update $DIS
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/22/14
The Walt Disney Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $DIS
Throwback Thursday – One Share Challenge

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Live Nation Entertainment Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LYV
Walt Disney Co Valuation – March 2017 $DIS
Tegna Inc Valuation – February 2017 $TGNA
E.W. Scripps Co Valuation – Initial Coverage $SSP
News Corp Valuation – February 2017 $NWSA
Cinemark Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CNK
International Speedway Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $ISCA
Corus Entertainment Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CJR.B
AMC Networks Inc Valuation – December 2016 $AMCX
Charter Communications Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CHTR

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in DIS but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top