Financial Services Stocks

Total System Services Inc Valuation – February 2018 $TSS

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Total System Services, Inc. provides electronic payment processing services to banks and other financial institutions. It operates through the following segments: North America Services, International Services, Merchant Services and NetSpend. The North America Services segment provides issuer account solutions for financial institutions and other organizations primarily based in North America. The International Services segment provides issuer card solutions to financial institutions and other organizations primarily based outside the North America region. The Merchant Services segment provides merchant services and related services to clients based primarily in the United States. The NetSpend segment provides GPR prepaid debit and payroll cards and alternative financial service solutions to the under banked and other consumers in the United States. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Columbus, GA.

TSS Chart

TSS data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSS – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,990,035,596 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.09 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 178.64% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 29.97 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.28 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.09 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 28.75 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.94
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $113.04
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $42.57
MG Value based on 0% Growth $24.96
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.73%
Current Price $87.99
% of Intrinsic Value 77.84%

Total System Services, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.39 in 2014 to an estimated $2.94 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 10.73% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Total System Services, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $33.57. The company pays a dividend of $0.46 per share, for a yield of 0.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 29.97, which was above the industry average of 21.55. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-16.25.

Total System Services, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$16.25
Graham Number $33.57
PEmg 29.97
Current Ratio 1.09
PB Ratio 7.28
Current Dividend $0.46
Dividend Yield 0.52%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $1,079,244,000
Total Current Liabilities $989,092,000
Long-Term Debt $2,591,949,000
Total Assets $6,331,689,000
Intangible Assets $4,633,597,000
Total Liabilities $4,090,696,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 185,301,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.11
Dec2017 $3.16
Dec2016 $1.73
Dec2015 $1.97
Dec2014 $1.72
Dec2013 $1.29
Dec2012 $1.29
Dec2011 $1.15
Dec2010 $0.99
Dec2009 $1.09
Dec2008 $1.26
Dec2007 $1.20
Dec2006 $1.26
Dec2005 $0.99
Dec2004 $0.76
Dec2003 $0.71
Dec2002 $0.64
Dec2001 $0.53
Dec2000 $0.45
Dec1999 $0.35
Dec1998 $0.28

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.94
Dec2017 $2.22
Dec2016 $1.70
Dec2015 $1.62
Dec2014 $1.39
Dec2013 $1.21
Dec2012 $1.16
Dec2011 $1.11
Dec2010 $1.12
Dec2009 $1.17
Dec2008 $1.17
Dec2007 $1.08
Dec2006 $0.97
Dec2005 $0.80
Dec2004 $0.67
Dec2003 $0.60
Dec2002 $0.51

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Total System Services Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $TSS
Total System Services Inc. Quarterly Valuation – October 2014 $TSS
Total System Services Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $TSS
30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/23/15
Total System Services Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $TSS

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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