Insurance Stocks

Progressive Corp Valuation – February 2018 $PGR

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Progressive Corp. is specialized in insurance products primarily related to motor vehicles. It offers insurance solutions for personal and commercial property casualty. It operates through the following segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, Property, and Other Indemnity. The Personal Lines segment offers insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles. The Commercial Lines segment writes primary liability and physical damage insurance for automobiles and trucks owned and operated predominately by small business in the business auto, for-hire transportation, contractor, for-hire specialty, and tow market. The Property segment covers residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters. The Other Indemnity segment manages run-off businesses. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, OH.

PGR Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PGR – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $33,490,488,743 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 55.77% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 23.12 Fail
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.63 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.49
MG Growth Estimate 5.23%
MG Value $47.23
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $36.11
MG Value based on 0% Growth $21.17
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.31%
Current Price $57.58
% of Intrinsic Value 121.92%

Progressive Corp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.85 in 2014 to an estimated $2.49 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.31% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Progressive Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $32.55. The company pays a dividend of $0.68 per share, for a yield of 1.2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 23.12, which was above the industry average of 20.16.

Progressive Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $32.55
PEmg 23.12
PB Ratio 3.63
Dividend Yield 1.18%
TTM Dividend $0.68
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $3,306,300,000
Total Assets $38,701,200,000
Intangible Assets $819,300,000
Total Liabilities $29,416,400,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 585,700,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.95
Dec2017 $2.72
Dec2016 $1.76
Dec2015 $2.15
Dec2014 $2.15
Dec2013 $1.93
Dec2012 $1.48
Dec2011 $1.59
Dec2010 $1.61
Dec2009 $1.57
Dec2008 -$0.10
Dec2007 $1.65
Dec2006 $2.10
Dec2005 $1.74
Dec2004 $1.91
Dec2003 $1.42
Dec2002 $0.75
Dec2001 $0.46
Dec2000 $0.05
Dec1999 $0.33
Dec1998 $0.51

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.49
Dec2017 $2.22
Dec2016 $1.95
Dec2015 $1.98
Dec2014 $1.85
Dec2013 $1.68
Dec2012 $1.44
Dec2011 $1.37
Dec2010 $1.30
Dec2009 $1.22
Dec2008 $1.19
Dec2007 $1.81
Dec2006 $1.79
Dec2005 $1.50
Dec2004 $1.23
Dec2003 $0.79
Dec2002 $0.46

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Progressive Corporation Valuation – June 2016 $PGR
11 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/21/15
Progressive Corp Valuation – November 2015 Update $PGR
The Best Companies of the Insurance Industry – October 2015
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/22/15

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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