Chemicals Stocks

Eastman Chemical Co Valuation – March 2018 $EMN

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Eastman Chemical Co. engages in the provision of specialty chemicals. It activities include production and distribution a range of advanced materials, chemicals and fibers. It operates through the following segments: Additives & Functional Products, Advanced Materials, Chemical Intermediates and Fibers. The Additives and Functional Products segment pertains to manufacturing chemicals for products in the coatings and tires industries in transportation, building and construction, durable goods and consumables markets. The Advanced Materials segment produces and markets its polymers, films, and plastics with differentiated performance properties for value-added end uses in transportation, consumables, building and construction, durable goods, and health and wellness markets. The Chemical Intermediates segment provides large scale and vertical integration from the cellulose and acetyl, olefins, and alkylamines streams to support operating segments with advantaged cost positions. . The Fiber segment manufactures and sells EstronTM acetate tow and EstrobondTM triacetin plasticizers for use primarily in the manufacture of cigarette filters; EstronTM natural (undyed) and ChromspunTM solution-dyed acetate yarns for use in apparel, home furnishings, and industrial fabrics; and cellulose acetate flake and acetyl raw materials for other acetate fiber producers, including the Company’s new joint venture acetate tow manufacturing facility in Hefei, China. The company was founded by George Eastman in 1918 and is headquartered in Kingsport, TN.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EMN – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,528,670,282 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.83 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 189.97% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 13.14 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.93 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.83 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 4.29 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.69
MG Growth Estimate 7.98%
MG Value $188.21
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $111.55
MG Value based on 0% Growth $65.39
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.32%
Current Price $101.08
% of Intrinsic Value 53.71%

Eastman Chemical Company qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.02 in 2014 to an estimated $7.69 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.32% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Eastman Chemical Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $84.49. The company pays a dividend of $2.09 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.14, which was below the industry average of 30.04, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-53.31.

Eastman Chemical Company performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$53.31
Graham Number $84.49
PEmg 13.14
Current Ratio 1.83
PB Ratio 2.93
Current Dividend $2.09
Dividend Yield 2.07%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2017
Total Current Assets $3,245,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,771,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,325,000,000
Total Assets $16,024,000,000
Intangible Assets $6,924,000,000
Total Liabilities $11,001,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 145,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.30
Dec2017 $10.09
Dec2016 $5.75
Dec2015 $5.66
Dec2014 $4.97
Dec2013 $7.44
Dec2012 $2.93
Dec2011 $4.52
Dec2010 $2.88
Dec2009 $0.93
Dec2008 $2.28
Dec2007 $1.79
Dec2006 $2.46
Dec2005 $3.41
Dec2004 $1.09
Dec2003 -$1.75
Dec2002 $0.40
Dec2001 -$1.14
Dec2000 $1.97
Dec1999 $0.31
Dec1998 $1.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.69
Dec2017 $7.19
Dec2016 $5.61
Dec2015 $5.39
Dec2014 $5.02
Dec2013 $4.61
Dec2012 $3.03
Dec2011 $2.88
Dec2010 $2.06
Dec2009 $1.83
Dec2008 $2.25
Dec2007 $1.96
Dec2006 $1.74
Dec2005 $1.05
Dec2004 -$0.05
Dec2003 -$0.42
Dec2002 $0.37

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2016
10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – February 2016
18 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 1/30/16
Eastman Chemical Co Valuation – January 2016 $EMN
10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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