Retail Stocks

Ross Stores Inc Valuation – March 2018 $ROST

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Ross Stores, Inc. engages in the operation of off-price retail apparel and home accessories stores. Its products include branded and designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions through the Dress for Less and dd’s DISCOUNTS brands. The company was founded by Stuart G. Moldaw in 1957 and is headquartered in Dublin, CA.

ROST Chart

ROST data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ROST – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $29,841,778,569 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.57 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 227.87% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 28.22 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 10.44 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.57 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.34 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.77
MG Growth Estimate 10.68%
MG Value $82.64
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $40.13
MG Value based on 0% Growth $23.52
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.86%
Current Price $78.09
% of Intrinsic Value 94.49%

Ross Stores, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.62 in 2014 to an estimated $2.77 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 9.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Ross Stores, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $22.68. The company pays a dividend of $0.54 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 28.22, which was below the industry average of 48.5, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $0.86.

Ross Stores, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.86
Graham Number $22.68
PEmg 28.22
Current Ratio 1.57
PB Ratio 10.44
Current Dividend $0.54
Dividend Yield 0.69%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 10/1/2017
Total Current Assets $3,235,945,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,056,242,000
Long-Term Debt $396,848,000
Total Assets $5,766,978,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,908,459,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 382,132,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.26
Jan2017 $2.83
Jan2016 $2.51
Jan2015 $2.21
Jan2014 $1.94
Jan2013 $1.77
Jan2012 $1.43
Jan2011 $1.16
Jan2010 $0.89
Jan2009 $0.58
Jan2008 $0.48
Jan2007 $0.43
Jan2006 $0.34
Jan2005 $0.28
Jan2004 $0.37
Jan2003 $0.31
Jan2002 $0.24
Jan2001 $0.23
Jan2000 $0.21
Jan1999 $0.18
Jan1998 $0.15

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.77
Jan2017 $2.43
Jan2016 $2.14
Jan2015 $1.87
Jan2014 $1.62
Jan2013 $1.36
Jan2012 $1.07
Jan2011 $0.83
Jan2010 $0.62
Jan2009 $0.47
Jan2008 $0.40
Jan2007 $0.36
Jan2006 $0.32
Jan2005 $0.30
Jan2004 $0.30
Jan2003 $0.25
Jan2002 $0.21

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – August 2017
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – March 2017
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – February 2017
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – January 2017
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – December 2016

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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