Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Green Plains, Inc. produces fuel-grade ethanol and corn oil, provides grain handling and storage, commodity marketing and distribution services. The company operates through the following segments: Ethanol Production, Partnership, Agribusiness and Energy Services and Food & Food Ingredients. The Ethanol Production segment operates ethanol plants in Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska and Tennessee. The Partnership segment provides fuel storage and transportation services by owning, operating, developing and acquiring ethanol and fuel storage tanks, terminals, transportation assets and other related assets and businesses. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment includes grain procurement, which markets, sells and distributes ethanol, distillers grains and corn oil produced at ethanol plants. This segment operates through bulk grain business and cattle feedlot operations. The Food & Food Ingredients segment includes a cattle feedlot operations. The company was founded in June 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, NE.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of GPRE – March 2018
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $771,791,362 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.36 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | -65.56% | Fail | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 35.20 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 0.97 | Pass | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.36 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 2.40 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Fail | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $0.53 |
| MG Growth Estimate | -4.25% |
| MG Value | $0.00 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Grade | D |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $7.72 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $4.53 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 13.35% |
| Current Price | $18.75 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | N/A |
Green Plains Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.97 in 2014 to an estimated $0.53 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 13.35% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Green Plains Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $0.48 per share, for a yield of 2.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 35.2, which was above the industry average of 31.55. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-13.01.
Green Plains Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$13.01 |
| Graham Number | $0.00 |
| PEmg | 35.20 |
| Current Ratio | 1.36 |
| PB Ratio | 0.97 |
| Current Dividend | $0.48 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.56% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 5 |
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2017 |
| Total Current Assets | $1,206,471,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $886,261,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $767,396,000 |
| Total Assets | $2,784,650,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $182,879,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $1,842,468,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 48,881,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | -$0.61 |
| Dec2017 | $1.47 |
| Dec2016 | $0.28 |
| Dec2015 | $0.18 |
| Dec2014 | $3.96 |
| Dec2013 | $1.26 |
| Dec2012 | $0.39 |
| Dec2011 | $1.01 |
| Dec2010 | $1.51 |
| Dec2009 | $0.79 |
| Nov2007 | -$1.18 |
| Nov2006 | $0.19 |
| Nov2005 | -$0.42 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $0.53 |
| Dec2017 | $1.21 |
| Dec2016 | $1.13 |
| Dec2015 | $1.49 |
| Dec2014 | $1.97 |
| Dec2013 | $0.98 |
| Dec2012 | $0.73 |
| Dec2011 | $0.75 |
| Dec2010 | $0.48 |
| Dec2009 | -$0.07 |
| Nov2007 | -$0.43 |
| Nov2006 | -$0.05 |
| Nov2005 | -$0.14 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
Green Plains Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPRE
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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