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Chemicals Stocks

Albemarle Corp Valuation – March 2018 $ALB

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Albemarle Corp. engages in developing, manufacturing and marketing of chemicals for consumer electronics, petroleum refining, utilities, packaging, construction, transportation, pharmaceuticals, crop production, food-safety and custom chemistry services. It operates through three segments: Lithium and Advanced Materials, Bromine Specialties, and Refining Solutions. The Lithium and Advanced Materials segment consists of two divisions: Lithium and Performance Catalyst Solutions. The Lithium business develops and manufactures basic lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, and value-added lithium specialties and reagents, including butyllithium and lithium aluminum hydride. The Performance Catalyst Solutions division includes four product lines: polymer catalysts, curatives, organometallics and electronic materials. The Bromine Specialties Segment engages in bromine and bromine-based business includes products used in fire safety solutions and other specialty chemicals applications. The Refining Solutions Segment includes two product lines: clean fuels technologies, which is primarily composed of hydro processing catalysts, and heavy oil upgrading, which is primarily composed of fluidized catalytic cracking catalysts and additives. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Charlotte, NC.

ALB Chart

ALB data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ALB – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $11,055,085,718 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.06 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 9.53% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 30.82 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.05 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.06 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.11 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.25
MG Growth Estimate -0.52%
MG Value $24.19
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $47.07
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.59
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.16%
Current Price $100.05
% of Intrinsic Value 413.54%

Albemarle Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.36 in 2014 to an estimated $3.25 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.16% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Albemarle Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $57.36. The company pays a dividend of $1.28 per share, for a yield of 1.3% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 30.82, which was below the industry average of 31.55, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-14.25.

Albemarle Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$14.25
Graham Number $57.36
PEmg 30.82
Current Ratio 2.06
PB Ratio 3.05
Current Dividend $1.28
Dividend Yield 1.28%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $2,477,563,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,200,925,000
Long-Term Debt $1,415,360,000
Total Assets $7,750,772,000
Intangible Assets $2,031,858,000
Total Liabilities $4,076,223,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 112,152,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.40
Dec2017 $0.49
Dec2016 $5.68
Dec2015 $3.00
Dec2014 $1.69
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $3.47
Dec2011 $4.28
Dec2010 $3.43
Dec2009 $1.94
Dec2008 $2.09
Dec2007 $2.36
Dec2006 $1.47
Dec2005 $1.20
Dec2004 $0.65
Dec2003 $0.86
Dec2002 $0.85
Dec2001 $0.74
Dec2000 $1.09
Dec1999 $0.94
Dec1998 $0.82

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.25
Dec2017 $2.83
Dec2016 $3.92
Dec2015 $3.18
Dec2014 $3.36
Dec2013 $4.00
Dec2012 $3.38
Dec2011 $3.17
Dec2010 $2.49
Dec2009 $1.95
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.56
Dec2006 $1.11
Dec2005 $0.90
Dec2004 $0.78
Dec2003 $0.87
Dec2002 $0.87

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Albemarle Corp Valuation – February 2016 $ALB
Albemarle Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $ALB
Albemarle Corporation Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALB

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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