Simmons First National Corp Valuation – March 2018 $SFNC

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Simmons First National Corp. operates as a bank holding company. The company’s services include consumer, real estate & commercial loans, checking, savings & time deposits, trust & investment management services and securities & investment services. Simmons First National was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pine Bluff, AR.

SFNC Chart

SFNC data by YCharts


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SFNC – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,807,610,074 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 92.91% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 18.22 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.28 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.67
MG Growth Estimate 13.67%
MG Value $59.91
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $24.24
MG Value based on 0% Growth $14.21
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.86%
Current Price $30.45
% of Intrinsic Value 50.83%

Simmons First National Corporation qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.87 in 2014 to an estimated $1.67 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Simmons First National Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $34.09. The company pays a dividend of $0.5 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.22, which was below the industry average of 24.17, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Simmons First National Corporation fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $34.09
PEmg 18.22
PB Ratio 1.28
Dividend Yield 1.64%
TTM Dividend $0.50
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $1,520,589,000
Total Assets $15,055,806,000
Intangible Assets $948,722,000
Total Liabilities $12,971,242,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 87,370,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.28
Dec2017 $1.33
Dec2016 $1.56
Dec2015 $1.31
Dec2014 $1.06
Dec2013 $0.71
Dec2012 $0.82
Dec2011 $0.74
Dec2010 $1.08
Dec2009 $0.87
Dec2008 $0.96
Dec2007 $0.96
Dec2006 $0.95
Dec2005 $0.92
Dec2004 $0.83
Dec2003 $0.83
Dec2002 $0.77
Dec2001 $0.58
Dec2000 $0.65
Dec1999 $0.58
Dec1998 $0.56

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.67
Dec2017 $1.31
Dec2016 $1.23
Dec2015 $1.02
Dec2014 $0.87
Dec2013 $0.80
Dec2012 $0.86
Dec2011 $0.90
Dec2010 $0.97
Dec2009 $0.92
Dec2008 $0.94
Dec2007 $0.92
Dec2006 $0.89
Dec2005 $0.83
Dec2004 $0.77
Dec2003 $0.72
Dec2002 $0.65

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.






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