Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Marketwatch): Altria Group, Inc. is a holding company which engages in the production and market of tobacco products. It operates through the following segments: Smokeable Products, Smokeless Products, and Wine. The Smokeable Products segment comprised of cigarettes manufactured and sold by PM USA and machine-made large cigars and pipe tobacco manufactured and sold by Middleton. The Smokeless products segment manufactured and sold by or on behalf of USSTC and PM USA. The Wine segment producer of Washington State wines, primarily Chateau Ste. Michelle and Columbia Crest, and owns wineries in or distributes wines from several other wine regions. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Richmond, VA.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of MO – March 2018
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$120,089,418,546||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.64||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||220.59%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||13.74||Pass|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||7.82||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.64||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-5.32||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$66.68|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$39.09|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||2.62%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||35.69%|
Altria Group Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.21 in 2014 to an estimated $4.6 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.62% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Altria Group Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $25.6. The company pays a dividend of $2.54 per share, for a yield of 4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.74, which was below the industry average of 25.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-12.34.
Altria Group Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$12.34|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||8|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||12/1/2017|
|Total Current Assets||$4,344,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$6,792,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||1,903,000,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.60|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.60|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
|5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid â€“ January 2015|
|Altria Group Inc. Annual Valuation â€“ 2015 $MO|
|14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week â€“ 1/25/14|
|Altria Group Inc. (MO) Annual Valuation|
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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