Morgan Stanley Valuation – March 2018 $MS

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Morgan Stanley provides investment banking products and services to its clients and customers including corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals. It operates through the following business segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The Institutional Services segment provides financial advisory, capital-raising services, and related financing services on behalf of institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers brokerage and investment advisory services covering various types of investments, including equities, options, futures, foreign currencies, precious metals, fixed-income securities, mutual funds, structured products, alternative investments, unit investment trusts, managed futures, separately managed accounts, and mutual fund asset allocation programs. The Investment Management segment provides equity, fixed income, alternative investments, real estate, and merchant banking strategies. The company was founded by Harold Stanley and Henry S. Morgan on September 16, 1935 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MS – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $103,049,132,685 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 223.95% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.77 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.33 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.24
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $124.59
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $46.92
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.51
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.64%
Current Price $57.51
% of Intrinsic Value 46.16%

Morgan Stanley is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.23 in 2014 to an estimated $3.24 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.64% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Morgan Stanley revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $59.03. The company pays a dividend of $0.9 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.77, which was below the industry average of 25.5, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Morgan Stanley performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $59.03
PEmg 17.77
PB Ratio 1.33
Dividend Yield 1.56%
TTM Dividend $0.90
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $202,334,000,000
Total Assets $851,733,000,000
Intangible Assets $9,045,000,000
Total Liabilities $774,342,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,794,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.02
Dec2017 $3.07
Dec2016 $2.92
Dec2015 $2.90
Dec2014 $1.60
Dec2013 $1.36
Dec2012 -$0.02
Dec2011 $1.23
Dec2010 $2.63
Dec2009 -$0.77
Nov2008 $1.45
Nov2007 $2.98
Nov2006 $7.07
Nov2005 $4.57
Nov2004 $4.06
Nov2003 $3.45
Nov2002 $2.69
Nov2001 $3.11
Nov2000 $4.73
Nov1999 $4.10
Nov1998 $2.67

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.24
Dec2017 $2.69
Dec2016 $2.25
Dec2015 $1.74
Dec2014 $1.23
Dec2013 $0.99
Dec2012 $0.84
Dec2011 $1.35
Dec2010 $1.83
Dec2009 $1.97
Nov2008 $3.57
Nov2007 $4.56
Nov2006 $5.03
Nov2005 $3.86
Nov2004 $3.54
Nov2003 $3.39
Nov2002 $3.40

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Morgan Stanley Valuation – June 2016 $MS
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – February 2015
34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Morgan Stanley Annual Valuation – 2015 $MS
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/25/14

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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