Alcohol & Tobacco Stocks

Philip Morris International Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PM

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Philip Morris International Inc., incorporated on January 4, 2007, is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, other tobacco products and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside of the United States. Its portfolio consists of both international and local brands. The Company’s segments include European Union (EU); Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa (EEMA); Asia, and Latin America & Canada. The Company’s portfolio of international and local brands is led by Marlboro. Its mid-price brands are L&M, Lark, Merit, Muratti and Philip Morris. Its other international brands include Bond Street, Chesterfield, Next and Red & White. The Company also owns various local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna and U Mild in Indonesia; Champion, Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines; Apollo-Soyuz and Optima in Russia; Morven Gold in Pakistan; Boston in Colombia; Belmont, Canadian Classics and Number 7 in Canada; f6 in Germany; Delicados in Mexico; Assos in Greece, and Petra in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. In addition to the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products, the Company is engaged in the development and commercialization of Reduced-Risk Products (RRPs). It has a range of RRPs in various stages of development, scientific assessment and commercialization.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PM – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $160,697,198,588 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.35 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 12.41% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.74 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -13.29 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.35 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 5.56 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.55
MG Growth Estimate -1.16%
MG Value $28.14
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $65.98
MG Value based on 0% Growth $38.68
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.12%
Current Price $103.46
% of Intrinsic Value 367.63%

Philip Morris International Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.93 in 2014 to an estimated $4.55 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.12% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Philip Morris International Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $4.22 per share, for a yield of 4.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.74, which was below the industry average of 25.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-21.55.

Philip Morris International Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$21.55
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 22.74
Current Ratio 1.35
PB Ratio -13.29
Current Dividend $4.22
Dividend Yield 4.08%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 10

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $21,594,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $15,962,000,000
Long-Term Debt $31,334,000,000
Total Assets $42,968,000,000
Intangible Assets $10,098,000,000
Total Liabilities $55,054,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,553,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.14
Dec2017 $3.88
Dec2016 $4.48
Dec2015 $4.42
Dec2014 $4.76
Dec2013 $5.26
Dec2012 $5.17
Dec2011 $4.85
Dec2010 $3.92
Dec2009 $3.24
Dec2008 $3.31
Dec2007 $2.86
Dec2006 $2.91
Dec2005 $2.69
Dec2003 $1.95

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.55
Dec2017 $4.36
Dec2016 $4.67
Dec2015 $4.81
Dec2014 $4.93
Dec2013 $4.84
Dec2012 $4.45
Dec2011 $3.94
Dec2010 $3.41
Dec2009 $3.10
Dec2008 $2.94
Dec2007 $2.53
Dec2006 $2.08
Dec2005 $1.42
Dec2003 $0.65

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Philip Morris International Annual Valuation – 2015 $PM
16 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/26/14
Philip Morris International (PM) Annual Valuation – 2014
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/25/14

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Philip Morris International Inc Valuation – June 2016 $PM
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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