Medical Stocks

Cardinal Health Inc Valuation – March 2018 $CAH

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Cardinal Health, Inc., incorporated on May 16, 1979, is a healthcare services and products company. The Company operates through two segments: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The Company provides solutions for hospital systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories and physician offices across the world. As of June 30, 2016, the Company has manufactured or sourced approximately 2.8 billion individual consumer healthcare, home medical equipment and over-counter products, and served approximately 25,000 pharmacies.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CAH – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $20,584,983,275 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.09 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 78.49% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.78 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.72 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.09 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 4.39 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.43
MG Growth Estimate 11.80%
MG Value $142.06
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A
MG Value based on 3% Growth $64.19
MG Value based on 0% Growth $37.63
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.14%
Current Price $65.41
% of Intrinsic Value 46.04%

Cardinal Health Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.48 in 2014 to an estimated $4.43 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.14% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Cardinal Health Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $50.88. The company pays a dividend of $1.81 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.78, which was below the industry average of 43.8, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-32.02.

Cardinal Health Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$32.02
Graham Number $50.88
PEmg 14.78
Current Ratio 1.09
PB Ratio 2.72
Current Dividend $1.81
Dividend Yield 2.77%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $25,188,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $23,125,000,000
Long-Term Debt $9,057,000,000
Total Assets $42,905,000,000
Intangible Assets $14,366,000,000
Total Liabilities $35,306,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 316,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.34
Jun2017 $4.03
Jun2016 $4.32
Jun2015 $3.62
Jun2014 $3.38
Jun2013 $0.97
Jun2012 $3.06
Jun2011 $2.72
Jun2010 $1.77
Jun2009 $3.18
Jun2008 $3.57
Jun2007 $4.77
Jun2006 $2.33
Jun2005 $2.41
Jun2004 $3.35
Jun2003 $3.03
Jun2002 $2.33
Jun2001 $1.85
Jun2000 $1.58
Jun1999 $1.12
Jun1998 $1.02

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.43
Jun2017 $3.73
Jun2016 $3.41
Jun2015 $2.89
Jun2014 $2.48
Jun2013 $2.13
Jun2012 $2.76
Jun2011 $2.81
Jun2010 $2.94
Jun2009 $3.44
Jun2008 $3.47
Jun2007 $3.34
Jun2006 $2.65
Jun2005 $2.74
Jun2004 $2.74
Jun2003 $2.29
Jun2002 $1.80

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
Cardinal Health Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $CAH
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/4/14
ModernGraham Valuation: Cardinal Health (CAH)

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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