Financial Services Stocks

Intercontinental Exchange Inc Valuation – March 2018 $ICE

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., incorporated on March 6, 2013, is an operator of regulated exchanges, clearing houses and listings venues. The Company provides data services for commodity and financial markets. The Company’s segments include Trading and Clearing segment, and Data and Listings segment. The Trading and Clearing segment includes the Company’s transaction-based execution and clearing businesses. The Company’s Data and Listings segment includes its subscription-based data services and securities listings businesses. The Company operates regulated marketplaces for listing, trading and clearing a range of derivatives and securities contracts across the asset classes, including energy and agricultural commodities, interest rates, equities, equity derivatives, exchange traded funds, credit derivatives, bonds and currencies. The Company offers market data services to support the trading, investment, risk management and connectivity needs of customers across a range of asset classes.

ICE Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ICE – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $43,328,515,117 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.99 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 199.94% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 23.82 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.60 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.99 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -7.01 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.12
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $120.25
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $45.29
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.55
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.66%
Current Price $74.41
% of Intrinsic Value 61.88%

Intercontinental Exchange Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.3 in 2014 to an estimated $3.12 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.66% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Intercontinental Exchange Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $46.5. The company pays a dividend of $0.8 per share, for a yield of 1.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 23.82, which was below the industry average of 25.5, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-13.16.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$13.16
Graham Number $46.50
PEmg 23.82
Current Ratio 0.99
PB Ratio 2.60
Current Dividend $0.80
Dividend Yield 1.08%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $53,562,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $54,171,000,000
Long-Term Debt $4,267,000,000
Total Assets $78,264,000,000
Intangible Assets $22,485,000,000
Total Liabilities $61,340,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 591,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.31
Dec2017 $4.23
Dec2016 $2.37
Dec2015 $2.28
Dec2014 $1.71
Dec2013 $0.64
Dec2012 $1.50
Dec2011 $1.38
Dec2010 $1.07
Dec2009 $0.85
Dec2008 $0.83
Dec2007 $0.68
Dec2006 $0.48
Dec2005 -$0.08
Dec2004 $0.08
Dec2003 $0.07
Dec2002 $0.07
Dec2001 $0.05

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.12
Dec2017 $2.77
Dec2016 $1.93
Dec2015 $1.64
Dec2014 $1.30
Dec2013 $1.09
Dec2012 $1.25
Dec2011 $1.07
Dec2010 $0.87
Dec2009 $0.70
Dec2008 $0.55
Dec2007 $0.35
Dec2006 $0.17
Dec2005 $0.02
Dec2004 $0.07
Dec2003 $0.05
Dec2002 $0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Intercontinental Exchange Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ICE
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $ICE
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/17/14
Intercontinental Exchange Group Inc. (ICE) Annual Valuation – 2014

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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