Media Entertainment Stocks

Time Warner Inc Valuation – March 2018 $TWX

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Time Warner Inc., incorporated on February 4, 2000, is a media and entertainment company. The Company operates through three segments: Turner, which consists of cable networks and digital media properties; Home Box Office, which consists of premium pay television and over the top (OTT) services and premium pay, basic tier television and OTT services internationally, and Warner Bros., which consists of television, feature film, home video, and videogame production and distribution. The Company also holds interests in companies that operate broadcast networks.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TWX – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $73,508,814,519 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.08 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 165.72% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.64 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.63 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.08 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 16.02 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.03
MG Growth Estimate 10.09%
MG Value $172.92
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $87.41
MG Value based on 0% Growth $51.24
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.57%
Current Price $94.26
% of Intrinsic Value 54.51%

Time Warner Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.6 in 2014 to an estimated $6.03 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.57% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Time Warner Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $76.12. The company pays a dividend of $1.61 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.64, which was below the industry average of 35.9, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-32.35.

Time Warner Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$32.35
Graham Number $76.12
PEmg 15.64
Current Ratio 1.08
PB Ratio 2.63
Current Dividend $1.61
Dividend Yield 1.71%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $15,219,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $14,077,000,000
Long-Term Debt $18,294,000,000
Total Assets $69,209,000,000
Intangible Assets $35,367,000,000
Total Liabilities $40,834,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 791,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.08
Dec2017 $6.64
Dec2016 $4.96
Dec2015 $4.62
Dec2014 $4.34
Dec2013 $3.92
Dec2012 $3.00
Dec2011 $2.71
Dec2010 $2.25
Dec2009 $2.07
Dec2008 -$11.23
Dec2007 $3.51
Dec2006 $4.65
Dec2005 $1.71
Dec2004 $1.98
Dec2003 $1.41
Dec2002 -$66.15
Dec2001 -$3.96
Jun2000 $1.44
Jun1999 $0.90
Jun1998 -$0.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.03
Dec2017 $5.30
Dec2016 $4.48
Dec2015 $4.06
Dec2014 $3.60
Dec2013 $3.09
Dec2012 $1.70
Dec2011 $0.65
Dec2010 -$0.17
Dec2009 -$0.87
Dec2008 -$1.52
Dec2007 $3.11
Dec2006 -$1.82
Dec2005 -$7.70
Dec2004 -$12.63
Dec2003 -$17.71
Dec2002 -$22.71

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Time Warner Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $TWX
28 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/1/14
Time Warner Inc. Quarterly Valuation – October 2014 $TWX
19 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 7/26/14

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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