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Food Processing Stocks

PepsiCo Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PEP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): PepsiCo, Inc., incorporated on November 13, 1986, is a global food and beverage company. The Company’s portfolio of brands includes Frito-Lay, Gatorade, Pepsi-Cola, Quaker and Tropicana. As of December 31, 2016, through its operations, authorized bottlers, contract manufacturers and other third parties, the Company made, marketed, distributed and sold a range of beverages, foods and snacks, serving customers and consumers in over 200 countries and territories. The Company operates through six segments: Frito-Lay North America (FLNA), Quaker Foods North America (QFNA), North America Beverages (NAB), Latin America, Europe Sub-Saharan Africa (ESSA), and Asia, Middle East and North Africa (AMENA). The FLNA segment includes its branded food and snack businesses in the United States and Canada. The QFNA segment includes its cereal, rice, pasta and other branded food businesses in the United States and Canada. The NAB segment includes its beverage businesses in the United States and Canada. The Latin America segment includes its beverage, food and snack businesses in Latin America. The ESSA segment includes its beverage, food and snack businesses in Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa. The AMENA segment includes its beverage, food and snack businesses in Asia, Middle East and North Africa.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PEP – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $154,975,046,257 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.51 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 14.43% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.62 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 14.16 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.51 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.21 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.43
MG Growth Estimate 1.00%
MG Value $46.54
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $64.29
MG Value based on 0% Growth $37.69
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.06%
Current Price $109.18
% of Intrinsic Value 234.59%

PepsiCo, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.16 in 2014 to an estimated $4.43 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.06% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into PepsiCo, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $31.47. The company pays a dividend of $3.17 per share, for a yield of 2.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.62, which was below the industry average of 33.37, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.35.

PepsiCo, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$26.35
Graham Number $31.47
PEmg 24.62
Current Ratio 1.51
PB Ratio 14.16
Current Dividend $3.17
Dividend Yield 2.90%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $31,027,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $20,502,000,000
Long-Term Debt $33,796,000,000
Total Assets $79,804,000,000
Intangible Assets $28,582,000,000
Total Liabilities $68,759,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,432,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.66
Dec2017 $3.38
Dec2016 $4.36
Dec2015 $3.67
Dec2014 $4.27
Dec2013 $4.32
Dec2012 $3.92
Dec2011 $4.03
Dec2010 $3.91
Dec2009 $3.77
Dec2008 $3.21
Dec2007 $3.41
Dec2006 $3.34
Dec2005 $2.39
Dec2004 $2.44
Dec2003 $2.05
Dec2002 $1.68
Dec2001 $1.33
Dec2000 $1.42
Dec1999 $1.37
Dec1998 $1.31

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.43
Dec2017 $3.88
Dec2016 $4.12
Dec2015 $4.02
Dec2014 $4.16
Dec2013 $4.06
Dec2012 $3.88
Dec2011 $3.80
Dec2010 $3.63
Dec2009 $3.40
Dec2008 $3.13
Dec2007 $2.97
Dec2006 $2.62
Dec2005 $2.17
Dec2004 $1.97
Dec2003 $1.68
Dec2002 $1.47

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – January 2015
Pepsico Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $PEP
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/25/14
Pepsico Inc. (PEP) Annual Valuation

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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