O’Reilly Automotive Inc Valuation – April 2018 $ORLY
Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): O’Reilly Automotive, Inc., incorporated on December 20, 2010, is a specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States. The Company sells its products to both do-it-yourself (DIY) and professional service provider customers. The Company’s product line includes new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, brake system components, batteries, belts, hoses, temperature control, chassis parts, driveline parts and engine parts; maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, filters, wiper blades, lighting, engine additives and appearance products, and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories. It operated 4,829 stores in 47 states, as of December 31, 2016.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of ORLY – April 2018
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $20,754,315,960 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 0.93 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 314.17% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 20.30 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 31.09 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 0.93 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | -11.93 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $11.71 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 15.00% |
| MG Value | $450.84 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Grade | D+ |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $169.80 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $99.54 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 5.90% |
| Current Price | $237.77 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 52.74% |
O’Reilly Automotive Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.7 in 2014 to an estimated $11.71 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.9% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into O’Reilly Automotive Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $48.37. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.3, which was above the industry average of 17.88. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-41.23.
O’Reilly Automotive Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$41.23 |
| Graham Number | $48.37 |
| PEmg | 20.30 |
| Current Ratio | 0.93 |
| PB Ratio | 31.09 |
| Current Dividend | $0.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 0 |
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2017 |
| Total Current Assets | $3,397,672,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $3,647,366,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $2,978,390,000 |
| Total Assets | $7,571,885,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $798,450,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $6,918,839,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 85,401,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $13.42 |
| Dec2017 | $12.67 |
| Dec2016 | $10.73 |
| Dec2015 | $9.17 |
| Dec2014 | $7.34 |
| Dec2013 | $6.03 |
| Dec2012 | $4.75 |
| Dec2011 | $3.71 |
| Dec2010 | $2.95 |
| Dec2009 | $2.23 |
| Dec2008 | $1.48 |
| Dec2007 | $1.67 |
| Dec2006 | $1.55 |
| Dec2005 | $1.45 |
| Dec2004 | $1.25 |
| Dec2003 | $0.92 |
| Dec2002 | $0.77 |
| Dec2001 | $0.63 |
| Dec2000 | $0.50 |
| Dec1999 | $0.46 |
| Dec1998 | $0.36 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $11.71 |
| Dec2017 | $10.30 |
| Dec2016 | $8.61 |
| Dec2015 | $7.10 |
| Dec2014 | $5.70 |
| Dec2013 | $4.56 |
| Dec2012 | $3.56 |
| Dec2011 | $2.78 |
| Dec2010 | $2.20 |
| Dec2009 | $1.78 |
| Dec2008 | $1.53 |
| Dec2007 | $1.49 |
| Dec2006 | $1.33 |
| Dec2005 | $1.14 |
| Dec2004 | $0.93 |
| Dec2003 | $0.73 |
| Dec2002 | $0.61 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
