Northern Trust Corp Valuation – April 2018 $NTRS

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Northern Trust Corporation, incorporated on August 23, 1971, is a financial holding company. The Company provides asset servicing, fund administration, asset management, fiduciary and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families and individuals around the world. The Company’s segments include Corporate & Institutional Services (C&IS), Wealth Management, and Treasury and Other. The Company conducts its business through various subsidiaries, including The Northern Trust Company (Bank). The Asset Management business, through the Company’s subsidiaries, supports the C&IS and Wealth Management segments by providing a range of asset management and related services, and other products to customers around the world.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NTRS – April 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $23,554,663,257 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 81.88% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.48 Fail
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.33 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.86
MG Growth Estimate 9.60%
MG Value $134.74
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $70.51
MG Value based on 0% Growth $41.33
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.49%
Current Price $104.46
% of Intrinsic Value 77.53%

Northern Trust Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.96 in 2014 to an estimated $4.86 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 6.49% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Northern Trust Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $73.19. The company pays a dividend of $1.6 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 21.48, which was below the industry average of 22.34, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Northern Trust Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $73.19
PEmg 21.48
PB Ratio 2.33
Dividend Yield 1.53%
TTM Dividend $1.60
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $9,275,400,000
Total Assets $138,590,500,000
Intangible Assets $605,600,000
Total Liabilities $128,374,300,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 228,050,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.80
Dec2017 $4.92
Dec2016 $4.32
Dec2015 $3.99
Dec2014 $3.32
Dec2013 $2.99
Dec2012 $2.81
Dec2011 $2.37
Dec2010 $2.74
Dec2009 $3.16
Dec2008 $3.47
Dec2007 $3.24
Dec2006 $3.00
Dec2005 $2.64
Dec2004 $2.27
Dec2003 $1.80
Dec2002 $1.97
Dec2001 $2.11
Dec2000 $2.08
Dec1999 $1.74
Dec1998 $1.52

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.86
Dec2017 $4.23
Dec2016 $3.75
Dec2015 $3.35
Dec2014 $2.96
Dec2013 $2.80
Dec2012 $2.77
Dec2011 $2.83
Dec2010 $3.08
Dec2009 $3.20
Dec2008 $3.12
Dec2007 $2.83
Dec2006 $2.53
Dec2005 $2.25
Dec2004 $2.05
Dec2003 $1.94
Dec2002 $1.97

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

7 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 7/30/16
Northern Trust Corp Valuation – July 2016 $NTRS
18 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 1/30/16
Northern Trust Corp Valuation – January 2016 Update $NTRS
Northern Trust Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $NTRS

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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