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Railroads Stocks

Union Pacific Corp Valuation – April 2018 $UNP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Union Pacific Corporation, incorporated on February 3, 1969, is a railroad operating company in the United States. The Company operates through its principal operating company, Union Pacific Railroad Company (UPRR). Its business mix includes Agricultural Products, Automotive, Chemicals, Coal, Industrial Products and Intermodal. As of December 31, 2016, its network included 32,070 route miles, linking Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern United States gateways. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned 26,053 miles and operated on the remainder pursuant to trackage rights or leases. It serves the western two-thirds of the country and maintains coordinated schedules with other rail carriers for the handling of freight to and from the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, the Southwest, Canada and Mexico. Export and import traffic is moved through Gulf Coast and Pacific Coast ports and across the Mexican and Canadian borders.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of UNP – April 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $101,042,499,049 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.02 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 220.08% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.13 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.13 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.02 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 240.96 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.08
MG Growth Estimate 11.16%
MG Value $248.92
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $117.14
MG Value based on 0% Growth $68.67
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.81%
Current Price $130.28
% of Intrinsic Value 52.34%

Union Pacific Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.63 in 2014 to an estimated $8.08 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.81% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Union Pacific Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $71.61. The company pays a dividend of $2.48 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.13, which was below the industry average of 25.23, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-36.76.

Union Pacific Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$36.76
Graham Number $71.61
PEmg 16.13
Current Ratio 1.02
PB Ratio 4.13
Current Dividend $2.48
Dividend Yield 1.90%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 11

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $4,006,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,939,000,000
Long-Term Debt $16,144,000,000
Total Assets $57,806,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $32,950,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 787,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.16
Dec2017 $13.36
Dec2016 $5.07
Dec2015 $5.49
Dec2014 $5.75
Dec2013 $4.71
Dec2012 $4.14
Dec2011 $3.36
Dec2010 $2.77
Dec2009 $1.87
Dec2008 $2.27
Dec2007 $1.73
Dec2006 $1.48
Dec2005 $0.96
Dec2004 $0.58
Dec2003 $1.51
Dec2002 $1.26
Dec2001 $0.94
Dec2000 $0.84
Dec1999 $0.81
Dec1998 -$0.64

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.08
Dec2017 $7.98
Dec2016 $5.21
Dec2015 $5.08
Dec2014 $4.63
Dec2013 $3.84
Dec2012 $3.23
Dec2011 $2.65
Dec2010 $2.20
Dec2009 $1.83
Dec2008 $1.68
Dec2007 $1.34
Dec2006 $1.15
Dec2005 $1.01
Dec2004 $1.03
Dec2003 $1.19
Dec2002 $0.90

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

26 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/6/16
Union Pacific Corporation Valuation – February 2016 Update $UNP
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/13/14
Union Pacific Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $UNP
10 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/14/2013

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Norfolk Southern Corp Valuation – August 2016 $NSC
CSX Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $CSX
Union Pacific Corp Valuation – August 2016 $UNP
Norfolk Southern Corp Valuation – February 2016 Update $NSC
CSX Corporation Valuation – February 2016 Update $CSX
Union Pacific Corporation Valuation – February 2016 Update $UNP
Norfolk Southern Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $NSC
Kansas City Southern Analysis – August 2015 Update $KSU
CSX Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $CSX
Union Pacific Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $UNP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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