Packaging Stocks

WestRock Co Valuation – April 2018 $WRK

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): WestRock Company, incorporated on March 6, 2015, is a multinational provider of paper and packaging solutions for consumer and corrugated packaging markets. The Company also develops real estate in the Charleston, South Carolina region. The Company’s segments include Corrugated Packaging, Consumer Packaging, and Land and Development. The Corrugated Packaging segment consists of its containerboard mill and corrugated packaging operations, as well as its recycling operations. The Consumer Packaging segment consists of consumer mills, folding carton, beverage, merchandising displays, and partition operations. The Land and Development segment is engaged in the development and sale of real estate primarily in Charleston, South Carolina.

WRK Chart

WRK data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of WRK – April 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $16,932,793,429 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.28 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -30.47% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 29.15 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.52 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.28 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 5.49 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.28
MG Growth Estimate -4.14%
MG Value $0.52
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $33.01
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.35
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.33%
Current Price $66.37
% of Intrinsic Value 12756.65%

WestRock Co does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.14 in 2014 to an estimated $2.28 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.33% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into WestRock Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $58.32. The company pays a dividend of $1.6 per share, for a yield of 2.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 29.15, which was above the industry average of 24.07. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-35.95.

WestRock Co scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$35.95
Graham Number $58.32
PEmg 29.15
Current Ratio 1.28
PB Ratio 1.52
Current Dividend $1.60
Dividend Yield 2.41%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $4,465,200,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,487,300,000
Long-Term Debt $5,365,800,000
Total Assets $25,136,900,000
Intangible Assets $8,793,400,000
Total Liabilities $13,783,500,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 259,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.72
Sep2017 $2.77
Sep2016 -$1.56
Sep2015 $2.93
Sep2014 $3.29
Sep2013 $4.98
Sep2012 $1.72
Sep2011 $1.39
Sep2010 $2.85
Sep2009 $2.86
Sep2008 $1.07
Sep2007 $1.04
Sep2006 $0.39
Sep2005 $0.25
Sep2004 $0.25
Sep2003 $0.42
Sep2002 $0.39
Sep2001 $0.46
Sep2000 -$0.23
Sep1999 $0.57
Sep1998 $0.60

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.28
Sep2017 $1.86
Sep2016 $1.70
Sep2015 $3.17
Sep2014 $3.14
Sep2013 $2.97
Sep2012 $1.96
Sep2011 $2.00
Sep2010 $2.09
Sep2009 $1.51
Sep2008 $0.76
Sep2007 $0.56
Sep2006 $0.33
Sep2005 $0.31
Sep2004 $0.32
Sep2003 $0.34
Sep2002 $0.32

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

WestRock Co Valuation – December 2016 $WRK
10 Best Dividend Paying Stocks for the Defensive Investor – August 2016
14 Best Undervalued Stocks of the Week – 8/6/16
WestRock Co Valuation – August 2016 $WRK
10 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Dividend Stock Investor – July 2016

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Packaging Corp of America Valuation – Initial Coverage $PKG
AptarGroup Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $ATR
Tredegar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TG
International Paper Co Valuation – March 2017 $IP
Schweitzer-Mauduit International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SWM
KapStone Paper and Packaging Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $KS
Sonoco Products Co Valuation – Initial Coverage $SON
Silgan Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SLGN
Clearwater Paper Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $CLW
Intertape Polymer Group Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:ITP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top