Auto Stocks

BorgWarner Inc Valuation – April 2018 $BWA

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): BorgWarner Inc., incorporated on May 4, 1987, is engaged in providing technology solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles. The Company’s segments include Engine and Drivetrain. The Engine segment’s products include turbochargers, timing devices and chains, emissions systems and thermal systems. The Drivetrain segment’s products include transmission components and systems, all-wheel drive (AWD) torque transfer systems and rotating electrical devices. The Company’s products are manufactured and sold across the world, primarily to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of light vehicles (passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), vans and light trucks). Its products are also sold to other OEMs of commercial vehicles (medium-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks and buses) and off-highway vehicles (agricultural and construction machinery and marine applications). The Company also manufactures and sells its products to certain Tier One vehicle systems suppliers and into the aftermarket for light, commercial and off-highway vehicles. The Company operates manufacturing facilities serving customers in Europe, the Americas and Asia.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of BWA – April 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $11,302,087,501 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.46 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 70.03% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.90 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.01 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.46 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.88 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.53
MG Growth Estimate 0.26%
MG Value $22.81
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $36.71
MG Value based on 0% Growth $21.52
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.20%
Current Price $52.91
% of Intrinsic Value 231.92%

BorgWarner Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.49 in 2014 to an estimated $2.53 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.2% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into BorgWarner Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $39.58. The company pays a dividend of $0.59 per share, for a yield of 1.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.9, which was above the industry average of 17.88. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-11.95.

BorgWarner Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$11.95
Graham Number $39.58
PEmg 20.90
Current Ratio 1.46
PB Ratio 3.01
Current Dividend $0.59
Dividend Yield 1.12%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $3,543,200,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,425,200,000
Long-Term Debt $2,103,700,000
Total Assets $9,787,600,000
Intangible Assets $2,374,500,000
Total Liabilities $6,070,800,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 211,467,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.95
Dec2017 $2.08
Dec2016 $0.55
Dec2015 $2.70
Dec2014 $2.86
Dec2013 $2.70
Dec2012 $2.09
Dec2011 $2.22
Dec2010 $1.54
Dec2009 $0.12
Dec2008 -$0.16
Dec2007 $1.23
Dec2006 $0.92
Dec2005 $1.04
Dec2004 $0.97
Dec2003 $0.80
Dec2002 -$0.56
Dec2001 $0.31
Dec2000 $0.44
Dec1999 $0.63
Dec1998 $0.50

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.53
Dec2017 $1.94
Dec2016 $1.97
Dec2015 $2.63
Dec2014 $2.49
Dec2013 $2.11
Dec2012 $1.60
Dec2011 $1.23
Dec2010 $0.74
Dec2009 $0.43
Dec2008 $0.66
Dec2007 $1.04
Dec2006 $0.85
Dec2005 $0.71
Dec2004 $0.49
Dec2003 $0.28
Dec2002 $0.10

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

BorgWarner Inc Valuation – December 2016 $BWA
BorgWarner Inc Valuation – August 2016 $BWA
5 Companies for Enterprising Investors Near 52 Week Lows – June 2016
10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016
26 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/6/16

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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