Archer-Daniels Midland Co Valuation – May 2018 $ADM
Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, incorporated on May 2, 1923, is a processor of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The Company manufactures protein meal, vegetable oil, corn sweeteners, flour, biodiesel, ethanol, and other food and feed ingredients. The Company’s segments include Agricultural Services, Corn Processing, Oilseeds Processing, Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients, Other and Corporate. Its geographical segments include the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and Germany. The Company also has a global grain elevator and transportation network to procure, store, clean and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats and barley, as well as processed agricultural commodities. The Company is engaged in procuring, transporting, storing, processing, and merchandising agricultural commodities and products. The Company also processes corn, oilseeds, and wheat into products for food, animal feed, chemical and energy uses.
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ModernGraham Valuation of ADM – May 2018
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $24,830,711,166 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.59 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | -11.43% | Fail | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 16.24 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 1.37 | Pass | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.59 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 0.90 | Pass | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $2.74 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 0.38% |
| MG Value | $25.34 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Grade | A- |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $39.66 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $23.25 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 3.87% |
| Current Price | $44.43 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 175.32% |
Archer Daniels Midland Co is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.67 in 2014 to an estimated $2.74 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.87% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Archer Daniels Midland Co revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $45.51. The company pays a dividend of $1.28 per share, for a yield of 2.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.24, which was below the industry average of 31.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.05.
Archer Daniels Midland Co fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$3.05 |
| Graham Number | $45.51 |
| PEmg | 16.24 |
| Current Ratio | 1.59 |
| PB Ratio | 1.37 |
| Current Dividend | $1.28 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.88% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 20 |
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2017 |
| Total Current Assets | $19,925,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $12,570,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $6,623,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $39,963,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $3,918,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $21,650,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 566,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.80 |
| Dec2017 | $2.79 |
| Dec2016 | $2.16 |
| Dec2015 | $2.98 |
| Dec2014 | $3.43 |
| Dec2013 | $2.02 |
| Jun2012 | $1.84 |
| Jun2011 | $3.13 |
| Jun2010 | $3.00 |
| Jun2009 | $2.62 |
| Jun2008 | $2.79 |
| Jun2007 | $3.30 |
| Jun2006 | $2.00 |
| Jun2005 | $1.59 |
| Jun2004 | $0.76 |
| Jun2003 | $0.70 |
| Jun2002 | $0.78 |
| Jun2001 | $0.55 |
| Jun2000 | $0.45 |
| Jun1999 | $0.35 |
| Jun1998 | $0.59 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $2.74 |
| Dec2017 | $2.69 |
| Dec2016 | $2.59 |
| Dec2015 | $2.77 |
| Dec2014 | $2.67 |
| Dec2013 | $2.36 |
| Jun2012 | $2.58 |
| Jun2011 | $2.96 |
| Jun2010 | $2.83 |
| Jun2009 | $2.65 |
| Jun2008 | $2.47 |
| Jun2007 | $2.10 |
| Jun2006 | $1.39 |
| Jun2005 | $1.01 |
| Jun2004 | $0.70 |
| Jun2003 | $0.64 |
| Jun2002 | $0.58 |
Recommended Reading:
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
