Oil & Gas Stocks

Kinder Morgan Inc Valuation – May 2018 $KMI

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Kinder Morgan, Inc., incorporated on August 23, 2006, is an energy infrastructure company in North America. The Company operates through five segments: Natural Gas Pipelines, CO2, Terminals, Products Pipelines and Kinder Morgan Canada. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned an interest in or operated approximately 84,000 miles of pipelines and 155 terminals. The Company’s pipelines transport natural gas, refined petroleum products, crude oil, condensate, carbon dioxide (CO2) and other products, and its terminals transload and store petroleum products, ethanol and chemicals, and handle such products as steel, coal and petroleum coke. The Company is a producer of CO2, which others utilize for enhanced oil recovery projects in the Permian basin.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of KMI – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $34,900,051,321 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.48 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 28.38% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 45.34 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.06 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.48 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -12.69 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.36
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $5.15
MG Value based on 0% Growth $3.02
Market Implied Growth Rate 18.42%
Current Price $16.11
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Kinder Morgan Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.77 in 2014 to an estimated $0.36 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 18.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Kinder Morgan Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $15.35. The company pays a dividend of $0.5 per share, for a yield of 3.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 45.34, which was below the industry average of 97.7, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.35.

Kinder Morgan Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$19.35
Graham Number $15.35
PEmg 45.34
Current Ratio 0.48
PB Ratio 1.06
Current Dividend $0.50
Dividend Yield 3.10%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,628,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,429,000,000
Long-Term Debt $35,543,000,000
Total Assets $79,011,000,000
Intangible Assets $25,201,000,000
Total Liabilities $45,344,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,207,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.69
Dec2017 $0.01
Dec2016 $0.25
Dec2015 $0.10
Dec2014 $0.89
Dec2013 $1.15
Dec2012 $0.35
Dec2011 $0.74

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.36
Dec2017 $0.29
Dec2016 $0.46
Dec2015 $0.60
Dec2014 $0.77
Dec2013 $0.62
Dec2012 $0.31
Dec2011 $0.25

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Kinder Morgan Inc Valuation – January 2017 $KMI
Kinder Morgan Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $KMI
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/17/14
Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) Annual Valuation – 2014

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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