Brown-Forman Corp Valuation – May 2018 $BF.B
Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Brown-Forman Corporation, incorporated on October 19, 1933, is a spirit and wine company. The Company manufactures, bottles, imports, exports, markets and sells a range of alcoholic beverages. The Company has a portfolio of approximately 40 spirit, wine and ready-to-drink cocktail (RTD) brands. The Company’s principal brands include Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Jack Daniel’s RTDs, Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey, Gentleman Jack Rare Tennessee Whiskey, Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Fire, Jack Daniel’s Single Barrel Collection, Jack Daniel’s Sinatra Select, Jack Daniel’s Winter Jack, Jack Daniel’s No. 27 Gold Tennessee Whiskey, Finlandia Vodkas, Finlandia RTDs, Korbel California Champagnes, Korbel California Brandy, Woodford Reserve Kentucky Bourbons, el Jimador Tequilas, el Jimador New Mix RTDs, Herradura Tequilas, Canadian Mist Canadian Whisky, Sonoma-Cutrer California Wines, Early Times Kentucky Whisky and Bourbon, Chambord Liqueur, Old Forester Kentucky Bourbon, Antiguo Tequila, Pepe Lopez Tequila, Santa Dose Cachaca and Collingwood Canadian Whisky.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of BF.B – May 2018
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $27,196,217,831 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.78 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 85.13% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 38.26 | Fail | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 28.80 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.78 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 1.53 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $1.49 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 5.68% |
| MG Value | $29.65 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Grade | C+ |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $21.65 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $12.69 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 14.89% |
| Current Price | $57.17 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 192.80% |
Brown-Forman Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.08 in 2014 to an estimated $1.49 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 14.89% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Brown-Forman Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $9.4. The company pays a dividend of $0.56 per share, for a yield of 1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 38.28, which was above the industry average of 24.61. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-1.98.
Brown-Forman Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$1.98 |
| Graham Number | $9.40 |
| PEmg | 38.29 |
| Current Ratio | 1.78 |
| PB Ratio | 28.82 |
| Current Dividend | $0.56 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.99% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 20 |
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 1/1/2018 |
| Total Current Assets | $2,641,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $1,486,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $1,770,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $5,042,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $1,448,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $3,841,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 605,305,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $1.38 |
| Apr2017 | $1.37 |
| Apr2016 | $2.09 |
| Apr2015 | $1.28 |
| Apr2014 | $1.22 |
| Apr2013 | $1.10 |
| Apr2012 | $0.95 |
| Apr2011 | $1.04 |
| Apr2010 | $0.81 |
| Apr2009 | $0.77 |
| Apr2008 | $0.76 |
| Apr2007 | $0.67 |
| Apr2006 | $0.55 |
| Apr2005 | $0.54 |
| Apr2004 | $0.43 |
| Apr2003 | $0.35 |
| Apr2002 | $0.35 |
| Apr2001 | $0.36 |
| Apr2000 | $0.34 |
| Apr1999 | $0.31 |
| Apr1998 | $0.29 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $1.49 |
| Apr2017 | $1.51 |
| Apr2016 | $1.49 |
| Apr2015 | $1.17 |
| Apr2014 | $1.08 |
| Apr2013 | $0.99 |
| Apr2012 | $0.91 |
| Apr2011 | $0.86 |
| Apr2010 | $0.75 |
| Apr2009 | $0.70 |
| Apr2008 | $0.64 |
| Apr2007 | $0.56 |
| Apr2006 | $0.48 |
| Apr2005 | $0.43 |
| Apr2004 | $0.38 |
| Apr2003 | $0.35 |
| Apr2002 | $0.34 |
Recommended Reading:
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
