Stocks Travel

Expedia Group Inc Valuation – May 2018 $EXPE

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Expedia Group, Inc., formerly Expedia, Inc., incorporated on April 18, 2005, is an online travel company. The Company operates through four segments: Core Online Travel Agencies (Core OTA), trivago, Egencia and HomeAway. It has created a global travel marketplace used by a range of leisure and corporate travelers, offline retail travel agents and travel service providers. The Company offers travel and non-travel advertisers access to a source of incremental traffic and transactions through its media and advertising offerings on its transaction-based Websites. The Company’s Core OTA segment provides a range of travel and advertising services to its customers across the world, through a range of brands, including Expedia.com and Hotels.com in the United States, and localized Expedia and Hotels.com Websites throughout the world, Orbitz.com, Expedia Affiliate Network, Hotwire.com, Travelocity, Wotif Group, CarRentals.com and Classic Vacations. The Company’s trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from its hotel metasearch Websites. Its Egencia segment, which also includes Orbitz Worldwide (Orbitz) for Business, provides managed travel services to corporate customers across the world. The Company’s HomeAway segment operates an online marketplace for the vacation rental industry.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EXPE – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $17,072,540,487 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.74 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -7.74% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 36.22 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.11 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.74 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -1.47 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.14
MG Growth Estimate 3.89%
MG Value $51.11
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $45.51
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.68
Market Implied Growth Rate 13.86%
Current Price $113.68
% of Intrinsic Value 222.41%

Expedia Group Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.49 in 2014 to an estimated $3.14 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 13.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Expedia Group Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $48.51. The company pays a dividend of $1.16 per share, for a yield of 1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 36.22, which was below the industry average of 40.97, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-57.98.

Expedia Group Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$57.98
Graham Number $48.51
PEmg 36.22
Current Ratio 0.74
PB Ratio 4.11
Current Dividend $1.16
Dividend Yield 1.02%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $7,431,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $9,991,000,000
Long-Term Debt $3,771,000,000
Total Assets $20,429,000,000
Intangible Assets $10,494,000,000
Total Liabilities $16,234,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 151,817,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.51
Dec2017 $2.42
Dec2016 $1.82
Dec2015 $5.70
Dec2014 $2.99
Dec2013 $1.67
Dec2012 $2.00
Dec2011 $3.41
Dec2010 $2.93
Dec2009 $2.06
Dec2008 -$17.60
Dec2007 $1.88
Dec2006 $1.40
Dec2005 $1.30
Dec2004 $0.00
Dec2003 $0.66
Dec2002 $0.46
Dec2001 $0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.14
Dec2017 $2.94
Dec2016 $3.08
Dec2015 $3.53
Dec2014 $2.49
Dec2013 $2.30
Dec2012 $1.26
Dec2011 $0.11
Dec2010 -$1.65
Dec2009 -$3.36
Dec2008 -$4.91
Dec2007 $1.30
Dec2006 $0.93
Dec2005 $0.63
Dec2004 $0.28
Dec2003 $0.35
Dec2002 $0.17

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Expedia Inc Valuation – February 2017 $EXPE
Expedia Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $EXPE
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 9/27/2014
Expedia Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $EXPE

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Booking Holdings Inc Valuation – April 2018 $BKNG
TripAdviser Inc Valuation – March 2018 $TRIP
Expedia Inc Valuation – February 2017 $EXPE
Priceline Group Inc Valuation – July 2016 $PCLN
TripAdvisor Inc Valuation – June 2016 $TRIP
TripAdvisor Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $TRIP
Expedia Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $EXPE
Tripadvisor Stock Analysis – August 2015 Update $TRIP
Priceline Group Annual Valuation – 2015 $PCLN
Tripadvisor Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $TRIP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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