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Saturday, January 19, 2019

Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MHK


Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Mohawk Industries, Inc., incorporated on December 22, 1988, is a flooring manufacturer that creates products for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The Company operates in three segments: Global Ceramic, Flooring North America (Flooring NA) and Flooring Rest of the World (Flooring ROW). The Company’s manufacturing and distribution processes provide carpet, rugs, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone, luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and vinyl flooring. The Company has operations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Europe, India, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Russia and the United States.

MHK Chart

MHK data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MHK – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,582,922,189 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.54 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 698.82% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.56 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.13 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.54 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.06 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $12.62
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $485.69
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $182.92
MG Value based on 0% Growth $107.23
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.03%
Current Price $208.89
% of Intrinsic Value 43.01%

Mohawk Industries, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.94 in 2014 to an estimated $12.62 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.03% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mohawk Industries, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $180.11. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.56, which was below the industry average of 26.36, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-12.35.

Mohawk Industries, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$12.35
Graham Number $180.11
PEmg 16.56
Current Ratio 1.54
PB Ratio 2.13
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,297,039,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,795,910,000
Long-Term Debt $1,585,651,000
Total Assets $12,560,372,000
Intangible Assets $3,412,604,000
Total Liabilities $5,222,429,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 74,929,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $15.20
Dec2017 $12.98
Dec2016 $12.48
Dec2015 $8.31
Dec2014 $7.25
Dec2013 $4.82
Dec2012 $3.61
Dec2011 $2.52
Dec2010 $2.65
Dec2009 -$0.08
Dec2008 -$21.32
Dec2007 $10.32
Dec2006 $6.70
Dec2005 $5.72
Dec2004 $5.49
Dec2003 $4.62
Dec2002 $4.39
Dec2001 $3.55
Dec2000 $3.00
Dec1999 $2.61
Dec1998 $1.89

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $12.62
Dec2017 $10.60
Dec2016 $8.71
Dec2015 $6.32
Dec2014 $4.94
Dec2013 $3.42
Dec2012 $0.97
Dec2011 -$0.62
Dec2010 -$1.58
Dec2009 -$2.37
Dec2008 -$1.89
Dec2007 $7.41
Dec2006 $5.77
Dec2005 $5.12
Dec2004 $4.61
Dec2003 $3.99
Dec2002 $3.48

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – February 2017 $MHK
Mohawk Industries Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $MHK
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/25/14
Mohawk Industries (MHK) Annual Valuation

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – May 2018 $JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – May 2018 $MAS
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – May 2018 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MLM
Fluor Corporation Valuation – April 2018 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – April 2018 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – April 2018 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – March 2018 $SHW
Cummins Inc Valuation – March 2018 $CMI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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