Apparel Stocks

Ralph Lauren Corp Valuation – May 2018 $RL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Ralph Lauren Corporation, incorporated on March 20, 1997, is engaged in the design, marketing and distribution of lifestyle products, including apparel, accessories, home furnishings and other licensed product categories. The Company operates in three segments: Wholesale, Retail and Licensing. Wholesale business consists of sales made to department stores and specialty stores around the world. Retail business consists of sales made directly to consumers through retail channel, which includes Company’s’ retail stores, concession-based shop-within-shops and e-commerce operations around the world. Licensing business consists of royalty-based arrangements, under which the Company licenses to unrelated third parties for specified periods the right to operate retail stores and/or to use its various trademarks in connection with the manufacture and sale of designated products, such as certain apparel, eyewear, fragrances and home furnishings.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of RL – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,197,063,069 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.07 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -61.77% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 38.95 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.73 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.07 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.16 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.92
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $9.08
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $42.39
MG Value based on 0% Growth $24.85
Market Implied Growth Rate 15.22%
Current Price $113.86
% of Intrinsic Value 1254.19%

Ralph Lauren Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $7.45 in 2014 to an estimated $2.92 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 15.22% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Ralph Lauren Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $43.75. The company pays a dividend of $2 per share, for a yield of 1.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 38.95, which was below the industry average of 49.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $9.08.

Ralph Lauren Corp scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $9.08
Graham Number $43.75
PEmg 38.95
Current Ratio 2.07
PB Ratio 2.73
Current Dividend $2.00
Dividend Yield 1.76%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $3,533,200,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,710,200,000
Long-Term Debt $290,300,000
Total Assets $6,199,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,136,500,000
Total Liabilities $2,791,500,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 81,700,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.12
Mar2017 -$1.20
Mar2016 $4.62
Mar2015 $7.88
Mar2014 $8.43
Mar2013 $8.00
Mar2012 $7.13
Mar2011 $5.75
Mar2010 $4.73
Mar2009 $4.01
Mar2008 $3.99
Mar2007 $3.73
Mar2006 $2.87
Mar2005 $1.83
Mar2004 $1.69
Mar2003 $1.76
Mar2002 $1.75
Mar2001 $0.58
Mar2000 $1.45
Mar1999 $0.91
Mar1998 $1.20

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.92
Mar2017 $4.07
Mar2016 $6.87
Mar2015 $7.81
Mar2014 $7.45
Mar2013 $6.62
Mar2012 $5.66
Mar2011 $4.76
Mar2010 $4.13
Mar2009 $3.65
Mar2008 $3.26
Mar2007 $2.72
Mar2006 $2.13
Mar2005 $1.68
Mar2004 $1.56
Mar2003 $1.42
Mar2002 $1.23

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Ralph Lauren Corp Valuation – April 2017 $RL
Ralph Lauren Corp Valuation – August 2016 $RL
Ralph Lauren Corp Stock Valuation – February 2016 $RL
10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/26/15
Ralph Lauren Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $RL

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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