Stage Stores Inc Valuation – May 2018 $SSI

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Stage Stores, Inc., incorporated on June 24, 1997, operates specialty department stores mainly in small and mid-sized towns and communities. The Company’s department stores offer a range of brand name and private label apparel, accessories, cosmetics, footwear and home goods. The Company operates approximately 830 specialty department stores in over 40 states under the BEALLS, GOODY’S, PALAIS ROYAL, PEEBLES and STAGE nameplates and a direct-to-consumer business.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SSI – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $79,686,094 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.40 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -256.20% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -5.20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.24 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.40 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.60 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$0.57
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $1.80
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$8.20
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$4.81
Market Implied Growth Rate -6.85%
Current Price $2.94
% of Intrinsic Value 163.34%

Stage Stores Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.88 in 2015 to an estimated $-0.57 for 2019. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Stage Stores Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $0.3 per share, for a yield of 10.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -5.2, which was below the industry average of 49.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $1.8.

Stage Stores Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.80
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -5.20
Current Ratio 2.40
PB Ratio 0.24
Current Dividend $0.30
Dividend Yield 10.20%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2018
Total Current Assets $512,034,000
Total Current Liabilities $213,418,000
Long-Term Debt $180,350,000
Total Assets $806,406,000
Intangible Assets $17,135,000
Total Liabilities $462,292,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 27,636,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate
Jan2018 -$1.37
Jan2017 -$1.40
Jan2016 $0.12
Jan2015 $0.96
Jan2014 $0.51
Jan2013 $1.19
Jan2012 $0.92
Jan2011 $0.99
Jan2010 $0.75
Jan2009 -$1.71
Jan2008 $1.24
Jan2007 $1.25
Jan2006 $1.27
Jan2005 $1.15
Jan2004 $1.18
Jan2003 $1.14
Jan2002 $0.49
Jan2001 -$2.56
Jan2000 -$4.47
Jan1999 $0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.57
Jan2018 -$0.64
Jan2017 -$0.10
Jan2016 $0.62
Jan2015 $0.88
Jan2014 $0.85
Jan2013 $0.83
Jan2012 $0.58
Jan2011 $0.44
Jan2010 $0.29
Jan2009 $0.26
Jan2008 $1.23
Jan2007 $1.22
Jan2006 $1.15
Jan2005 $0.82
Jan2004 $0.15
Jan2003 -$0.60

Recommended Reading:

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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