Retail Stocks

Ulta Beauty Inc Valuation – June 2018 $ULTA

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a holding company for the Ulta Beauty group of companies. The Company is a beauty retailer. The Company offers cosmetics, fragrance, skin, hair care products and salon services.

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ULTA data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ULTA – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,365,822,382 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.42 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 487.10% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 37.66 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.67 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.42 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.74
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $259.59
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $97.77
MG Value based on 0% Growth $57.31
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.58%
Current Price $253.93
% of Intrinsic Value 97.82%

Ulta Beauty Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.03 in 2015 to an estimated $6.74 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 14.58% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Ulta Beauty Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $64.01. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 37.66, which was above the industry average of 37.1. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $9.26.

Ulta Beauty Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $9.26
Graham Number $64.01
PEmg 37.66
Current Ratio 2.42
PB Ratio 8.67
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 4/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,802,699,000
Total Current Liabilities $745,092,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $3,022,249,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $1,238,816,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 60,909,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.36
Jan2018 $8.96
Jan2017 $6.52
Jan2016 $4.98
Jan2015 $3.98
Jan2014 $3.15
Jan2013 $2.68
Jan2012 $1.90
Jan2011 $1.16
Jan2010 $0.66
Jan2009 $0.43
Jan2008 $0.48
Jan2007 $0.45
Jan2006 $0.33
Jan2005 -$0.70
Jan2004 -$2.36
Jan2003 $0.02

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.74
Jan2018 $6.46
Jan2017 $4.90
Jan2016 $3.84
Jan2015 $3.03
Jan2014 $2.34
Jan2013 $1.75
Jan2012 $1.16
Jan2011 $0.74
Jan2010 $0.51
Jan2009 $0.36
Jan2008 $0.10
Jan2007 -$0.22
Jan2006 -$0.55
Jan2005 -$0.86
Jan2004 -$0.78
Jan2003 $0.01

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Ulta Beauty Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $ULTA

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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