Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Shoe Carnival, Inc., incorporated on April 3, 1996, is a family footwear retailer. The Company’s primary activity is the sale of footwear and related products through its retail stores in approximately 30 states within the continental United States and in Puerto Rico. It also offers online shopping on its e-commerce site at www.shoecarnival.com. The Company’s products assortment includes dress and casual shoes, sandals, boots and an assortment of athletic for the entire family in four general categories-women’s, men’s, children’s and athletics.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$548,825,424||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||4.00||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||27.01%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||22.57||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||1.75||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||4.00||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||0.00||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||2.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$21.81|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$12.78|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||7.03%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||180.63%|
Shoe Carnival, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.33 in 2015 to an estimated $1.5 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.03% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Shoe Carnival, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $29.12. The company pays a dividend of $0.3 per share, for a yield of 0.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.57, which was below the industry average of 37.1, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $13.6.
Shoe Carnival, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$13.60|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||3|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||4/1/2018|
|Total Current Assets||$347,642,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$86,828,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||15,528,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.99|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.50|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.