Kirkland’s Inc Valuation – June 2018 $KIRK

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Kirkland’s, Inc., incorporated on January 22, 1981, is a specialty retailer of home decor and gifts in the United States. The Company’s merchandise categories include wall decor, art, mirrors, lamps, decorative accessories, accent furniture, textiles, fragrance and accessories, frames, housewares, impulse and personal accessories, outdoor living and artificial floral products. The Company’s stores also offer a range of holiday merchandise during seasonal periods, as well as items carried throughout the year suitable for gift-giving. The Company’s average stores generally carry approximately 4,700 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs). The Company’s stores operate under various names, such as Kirkland’s, Kirkland’s Home, Kirkland’s Home Outlet, Kirkland’s Outlet and The Kirkland Collection.

KIRK Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of KIRK – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $192,849,095 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.91 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -62.18% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.35 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.42 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.91 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.58
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.76
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $8.35
MG Value based on 0% Growth $4.90
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.43%
Current Price $12.30
% of Intrinsic Value 1612.53%

Kirkland’s, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.92 in 2015 to an estimated $0.58 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.43% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Kirkland’s, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $9.7. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 21.35, which was below the industry average of 37.1, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $0.76.

Kirkland’s, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.76
Graham Number $9.70
PEmg 21.35
Current Ratio 1.91
PB Ratio 1.42
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 4/1/2018
Total Current Assets $157,254,000
Total Current Liabilities $82,545,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $282,601,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $145,196,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 15,808,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.48
Jan2018 $0.33
Jan2017 $0.68
Jan2016 $0.94
Jan2015 $1.00
Jan2014 $0.82
Jan2013 $0.77
Jan2012 $0.95
Jan2011 $1.28
Jan2010 $1.71
Jan2009 $0.47
Jan2008 -$1.33
Jan2007 -$0.01
Jan2006 $0.01
Jan2005 $0.34
Jan2004 $0.92
Jan2003 $0.69
Jan2002 -$0.60

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.58
Jan2018 $0.67
Jan2017 $0.84
Jan2016 $0.91
Jan2015 $0.92
Jan2014 $0.95
Jan2013 $1.03
Jan2012 $0.97
Jan2011 $0.80
Jan2010 $0.43
Jan2009 -$0.18
Jan2008 -$0.34
Jan2007 $0.24
Jan2006 $0.33
Jan2005 $0.42
Jan2004 $0.37
Jan2003 $0.07

Recommended Reading:

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Kirkland’s Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $KIRK

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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