Stamps.com Inc Valuation – June 2018 $STMP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Stamps.com Inc., incorporated on January 9, 1998, is a provider of Internet-based mailing and shipping solutions in the United States. The Company offers mailing and shipping products and services to its customers under the Stamps.com, Endicia, ShipStation, ShipWorks and ShippingEasy brands. It operates through the Internet Mailing and Shipping Services segment. Under the Stamps.com and Endicia brands, customers use its United States Postal Service (USPS) only solutions to mail and ship a range of mail pieces and packages through the USPS. USPS mailing and shipping solutions enable users to print electronic postage directly onto envelopes, plain paper, or labels using only a standard personal computer, printer and Internet connection. Its solutions support a range of USPS mail classes, including First Class Mail, Priority Mail, Priority Mail Express, Media Mail, Parcel Select and others.

STMP Chart

STMP data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of STMP – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,784,459,366 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.80 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 789.96% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 41.78 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 9.06 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.80 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.28 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.41
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $246.66
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $92.90
MG Value based on 0% Growth $54.46
Market Implied Growth Rate 16.64%
Current Price $267.70
% of Intrinsic Value 108.53%

Stamps.com Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.19 in 2014 to an estimated $6.41 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 16.64% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Stamps.com Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $79.24. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 41.78, which was above the industry average of 37.1. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $7.83.

Stamps.com Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $7.83
Graham Number $79.24
PEmg 41.78
Current Ratio 2.80
PB Ratio 9.06
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $325,612,000
Total Current Liabilities $116,402,000
Long-Term Debt $58,158,000
Total Assets $727,396,000
Intangible Assets $316,686,000
Total Liabilities $180,742,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 18,511,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.85
Dec2017 $8.19
Dec2016 $4.12
Dec2015 -$0.26
Dec2014 $2.25
Dec2013 $2.71
Dec2012 $2.30
Dec2011 $1.73
Dec2010 $0.38
Dec2009 $0.38
Dec2008 $0.53
Dec2007 $0.50
Dec2006 $0.69
Dec2005 $0.44
Dec2004 -$0.21
Dec2003 -$0.42
Dec2002 -$0.28
Dec2001 -$8.28
Dec2000 -$9.08
Dec1999 -$5.18
Dec1998 -$1.70

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.41
Dec2017 $4.26
Dec2016 $2.27
Dec2015 $1.48
Dec2014 $2.19
Dec2013 $1.94
Dec2012 $1.39
Dec2011 $0.86
Dec2010 $0.45
Dec2009 $0.49
Dec2008 $0.49
Dec2007 $0.38
Dec2006 $0.23
Dec2005 -$0.58
Dec2004 -$1.95
Dec2003 -$3.43
Dec2002 -$4.92

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Stamps.com Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $STMP

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.


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