Moody’s Corporation – June 2018 $MCO

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Moody’s Corporation (Moody’s), incorporated on June 2, 2000, is a provider of credit ratings; credit, capital markets and economic related research, data and analytical tools; software solutions and related risk management services, quantitative credit risk measures, financial services training and certification services, and research and analytical services to financial institution customers. The Company operates in two segments: Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) and Moody’s Analytics (MA). The Company’s MIS segment consists of the Company’s ratings operations. The Company’s MA segment develops a range of products and services that support financial analysis and risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MCO – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $33,085,476,772 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.47 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 121.17% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 34.03 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 79.84 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.47 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 5.70 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.07
MG Growth Estimate 6.22%
MG Value $106.07
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $73.47
MG Value based on 0% Growth $43.07
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.76%
Current Price $172.41
% of Intrinsic Value 162.55%

Moody’s Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.58 in 2014 to an estimated $5.07 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 12.76% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Moody’s Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $1.52 per share, for a yield of 0.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 34.03, which was above the industry average of 22.96. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-29.69.

Moody’s Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$29.69
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 34.03
Current Ratio 1.47
PB Ratio 79.84
Current Dividend $1.52
Dividend Yield 0.88%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,818,800,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,920,900,000
Long-Term Debt $5,118,000,000
Total Assets $9,014,000,000
Intangible Assets $5,473,100,000
Total Liabilities $8,594,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 194,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.49
Dec2017 $5.15
Dec2016 $1.36
Dec2015 $4.63
Dec2014 $4.61
Dec2013 $3.60
Dec2012 $3.05
Dec2011 $2.49
Dec2010 $2.15
Dec2009 $1.69
Dec2008 $1.87
Dec2007 $2.58
Dec2006 $2.58
Dec2005 $1.84
Dec2004 $1.40
Dec2003 $1.19
Dec2002 $0.92
Dec2001 $0.66
Dec2000 $0.49
Dec1999 $0.48
Dec1998 $0.82

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.07
Dec2017 $3.86
Dec2016 $3.29
Dec2015 $4.07
Dec2014 $3.58
Dec2013 $2.91
Dec2012 $2.46
Dec2011 $2.16
Dec2010 $2.06
Dec2009 $2.04
Dec2008 $2.17
Dec2007 $2.18
Dec2006 $1.85
Dec2005 $1.39
Dec2004 $1.09
Dec2003 $0.87
Dec2002 $0.70

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Moody’s Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $MCO
21 Best Undervalued Stocks of the Week – 8/27/16
Moody’s Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $MCO
Moody’s Corporation Stock Valuation – February 2016 $MCO
10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/26/15

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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