Activision Blizzard Inc Valuation – June 2018 $ATVI

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Activision Blizzard, Inc., incorporated on February 17, 2000, is a developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services. The Company develops and distributes content and services across various gaming platforms, including video game consoles, personal computers (PC) and mobile devices. The Company’s segments include Activision Publishing, Inc. (Activision), Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. (Blizzard), King Digital Entertainment (King) and Other. The Company also develops products spanning other genres, including first-person action, action/adventure, role-playing, simulation and strategy. It provides various forms of product support. The Company sells games through both retail and digital online channels.

ATVI Chart

ATVI data by YCharts


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ATVI – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $59,317,089,612 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.19 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 208.96% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 53.55 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.96 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.19 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.26 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.42
MG Growth Estimate 6.80%
MG Value $31.36
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $20.58
MG Value based on 0% Growth $12.06
Market Implied Growth Rate 22.53%
Current Price $76.01
% of Intrinsic Value 242.35%

Activision Blizzard, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.98 in 2014 to an estimated $1.42 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 22.53% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Activision Blizzard, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $26.51. The company pays a dividend of $0.3 per share, for a yield of 0.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 53.55, which was above the industry average of 28.13. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.82.

Activision Blizzard, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.82
Graham Number $26.51
PEmg 53.55
Current Ratio 2.19
PB Ratio 5.96
Current Dividend $0.30
Dividend Yield 0.39%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,410,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,927,000,000
Long-Term Debt $4,392,000,000
Total Assets $18,397,000,000
Intangible Assets $10,843,000,000
Total Liabilities $8,578,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 770,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.50
Dec2017 $0.36
Dec2016 $1.28
Dec2015 $1.19
Dec2014 $1.13
Dec2013 $0.95
Dec2012 $1.01
Dec2011 $0.92
Dec2010 $0.33
Dec2009 $0.09
Mar2008 $0.55
Mar2007 $0.14
Mar2006 $0.07
Mar2005 $0.25
Mar2004 $0.15
Mar2003 $0.12
Mar2002 $0.11
Mar2001 $0.06
Mar2000 -$0.12
Mar1999 $0.05
Mar1998 $0.02

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.42
Dec2017 $0.91
Dec2016 $1.16
Dec2015 $1.08
Dec2014 $0.98
Dec2013 $0.82
Dec2012 $0.70
Dec2011 $0.50
Dec2010 $0.27
Dec2009 $0.23
Mar2008 $0.28
Mar2007 $0.14
Mar2006 $0.14
Mar2005 $0.16
Mar2004 $0.10
Mar2003 $0.07
Mar2002 $0.04

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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