Mining Stocks

Alliance Resource Partners LP Valuation – July 2018 $ARLP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., incorporated on May 17, 1999, is a producer and marketer of coal primarily to the United States utilities and industrial users. The Company operates through segments, including Illinois Basin, Appalachia, and Other and Corporate. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated eight underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. The Company also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana. The Company’s mining activities are conducted in two geographic regions: the Illinois Basin and Appalachian region.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ARLP – July 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,428,544,196 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.15 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -4.63% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 6.37 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.93 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.15 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 10.28 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.88
MG Growth Estimate -4.02%
MG Value $1.34
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $41.77
MG Value based on 0% Growth $24.49
Market Implied Growth Rate -1.06%
Current Price $18.35
% of Intrinsic Value 1373.62%

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.93 in 2014 to an estimated $2.88 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 1.06% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $22.52. The company pays a dividend of $1.88 per share, for a yield of 10.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 6.37, which was below the industry average of 46.07, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-5.41.

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$5.41
Graham Number $22.52
PEmg 6.37
Current Ratio 1.15
PB Ratio 1.93
Current Dividend $1.88
Dividend Yield 10.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $294,106,000
Total Current Liabilities $256,493,000
Long-Term Debt $386,703,000
Total Assets $2,243,414,000
Intangible Assets $136,399,000
Total Liabilities $1,002,448,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 130,819,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.57
Dec2017 $2.80
Dec2016 $3.39
Dec2015 $2.11
Dec2014 $4.77
Dec2013 $3.63
Dec2012 $3.06
Dec2011 $4.07
Dec2010 $3.34
Dec2009 $1.78
Dec2008 $1.20
Dec2007 $1.53
Dec2006 $1.52
Dec2005 $1.42
Dec2004 $0.86
Dec2003 $0.63
Dec2002 $0.56
Dec2001 $0.27
Dec2000 $0.25
Dec1999 $0.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.88
Dec2017 $3.14
Dec2016 $3.33
Dec2015 $3.38
Dec2014 $3.93
Dec2013 $3.40
Dec2012 $3.09
Dec2011 $2.86
Dec2010 $2.13
Dec2009 $1.51
Dec2008 $1.35
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $1.18
Dec2005 $0.92
Dec2004 $0.62
Dec2003 $0.45
Dec2002 $0.32

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Alliance Resource Partners LP Valuation – September 2016 $ARLP
Alliance Resource Partners LP Analysis – Initial Coverage $ARLP

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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