Cognex Corp Valuation – July 2018 $CGNX

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Cognex Corporation (Cognex), incorporated on January 7, 1981, is a provider of machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information in order to automate tasks, primarily in manufacturing processes, where vision is required. The Company operates through the machine vision technology segment. The Company’s machine vision products are used to automate the manufacture and tracking of discrete items, such as mobile phones, aspirin bottles and automobile tires, by locating, identifying, inspecting and measuring them during the manufacturing or distribution process. The Company’s products include vision software, vision systems, vision sensors and identification (ID) products. Its products range from vision sensors that are integrated, to personal computer (PC)-based systems for users. Its products also have a range of physical forms, depending upon the user’s need. Cognex sells its products through a direct sales force, as well as through a global network of integration and distribution partners.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CGNX – July 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,736,027,540 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 5.93 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 288.16% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 45.29 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.47 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 5.93 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.99
MG Growth Estimate 14.96%
MG Value $38.01
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $14.35
MG Value based on 0% Growth $8.41
Market Implied Growth Rate 18.40%
Current Price $44.81
% of Intrinsic Value 117.89%

Cognex Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.5 in 2014 to an estimated $0.99 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 18.4% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Cognex Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $12.5. The company pays a dividend of $0.17 per share, for a yield of 0.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 45.29, which was below the industry average of 53.59, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $2.66.

Cognex Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $2.66
Graham Number $12.50
PEmg 45.29
Current Ratio 5.93
PB Ratio 7.47
Current Dividend $0.17
Dividend Yield 0.37%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $670,549,000
Total Current Liabilities $113,018,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $1,268,915,000
Intangible Assets $125,628,000
Total Liabilities $191,816,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 179,641,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.10
Dec2017 $0.99
Dec2016 $0.86
Dec2015 $1.06
Dec2014 $0.68
Dec2013 $0.42
Dec2012 $0.39
Dec2011 $0.41
Dec2010 $0.38
Dec2009 -$0.03
Dec2008 $0.17
Dec2007 $0.15
Dec2006 $0.21
Dec2005 $0.19
Dec2004 $0.20
Dec2003 $0.09
Dec2002 -$0.04
Dec2001 -$0.06
Dec2000 $0.37
Dec1999 $0.17
Dec1998 $0.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.99
Dec2017 $0.89
Dec2016 $0.79
Dec2015 $0.70
Dec2014 $0.50
Dec2013 $0.37
Dec2012 $0.32
Dec2011 $0.26
Dec2010 $0.19
Dec2009 $0.11
Dec2008 $0.18
Dec2007 $0.18
Dec2006 $0.17
Dec2005 $0.12
Dec2004 $0.10
Dec2003 $0.07
Dec2002 $0.08

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

9 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 12/17/16
Cognex Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $CGNX

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.


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