Pharmaceuticals Stocks

Akorn Inc Valuation – July 2018 $AKRX

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Akorn Inc. (Akorn), incorporated on January 20, 1971, together with its subsidiaries, is a specialty generic pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures and markets generic and branded prescription pharmaceuticals, as well as private-label over-the-counter (OTC) consumer health products and animal health pharmaceuticals. The Company operates through two segments: Prescription Pharmaceuticals and the Consumer Health. The Company is engaged in the development, manufacturing and marketing of generic pharmaceutical products in alternative dosage forms. It is focused on sterile and non-sterile dosage forms including, ophthalmics, injectables, oral liquids, otics, topicals, inhalants and nasal sprays. The Company’s Akorn Consumer Health division (ACH) markets a portfolio of OTC brands and various formulations of private-label OTC pharmaceutical products. Its OTC brand is TheraTears Therapy for Your Eyes, which is a family of therapeutic eye care products, including dry eye therapy lubricating eye drops, eyelid and eyelash cleansing foam and eye nutrition supplements.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AKRX – July 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,140,267,723 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.64 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 308.57% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 37.82 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.72 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.64 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.48 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.47
MG Growth Estimate 8.32%
MG Value $11.70
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $6.75
MG Value based on 0% Growth $3.96
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.66%
Current Price $17.60
% of Intrinsic Value 150.47%

Akorn, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.3 in 2014 to an estimated $0.47 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 14.66% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Akorn, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $4.89. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 37.82, which was below the industry average of 40.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.78.

Akorn, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.78
Graham Number $4.89
PEmg 37.82
Current Ratio 4.64
PB Ratio 2.72
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $705,016,000
Total Current Liabilities $151,931,000
Long-Term Debt $816,499,000
Total Assets $1,863,472,000
Intangible Assets $822,458,000
Total Liabilities $1,052,956,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 125,240,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.16
Dec2017 -$0.20
Dec2016 $1.47
Dec2015 $1.22
Dec2014 $0.13
Dec2013 $0.46
Dec2012 $0.32
Dec2011 $0.41
Dec2010 $0.22
Dec2009 -$0.28
Dec2008 -$0.09
Dec2007 -$0.22
Dec2006 -$0.09
Dec2005 -$0.49
Dec2004 -$1.80
Dec2003 -$0.62
Dec2002 -$0.66
Dec2001 -$0.78
Dec2000 -$0.13
Dec1999 $0.36
Dec1998 $0.25

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.47
Dec2017 $0.62
Dec2016 $0.92
Dec2015 $0.60
Dec2014 $0.30
Dec2013 $0.33
Dec2012 $0.22
Dec2011 $0.11
Dec2010 -$0.05
Dec2009 -$0.21
Dec2008 -$0.29
Dec2007 -$0.48
Dec2006 -$0.65
Dec2005 -$0.91
Dec2004 -$1.01
Dec2003 -$0.53
Dec2002 -$0.39

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Akorn Inc Valuation – December 2016 $AKRX
Akorn Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AKRX

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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