Media Entertainment Stocks

AMC Networks Inc Valuation – July 2018 $AMCX

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): AMC Networks Inc., incorporated on March 9, 2011, is a holding company, which conducts all of its operations through its subsidiaries. The Company owns and operates entertainment businesses and assets. The Company operates through two segments: National Networks, and International and Other. The National Networks segment includes activities of its programming businesses, which include its programming networks distributed in the United States and Canada. The International and Other segment principally includes AMC Networks International (AMCNI), the Company’s international programming businesses, consisting of a portfolio of channels in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and parts of Asia and Africa; IFC Films, the Company’s independent film distribution business; AMC Networks International- DMC, the broadcast solutions unit of certain networks of AMCNI and third-party networks, and various developing online content distribution initiatives.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AMCX – July 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,404,390,873 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.64 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 514.58% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 9.89 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 13.96 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.64 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.64 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.97
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $229.95
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $86.60
MG Value based on 0% Growth $50.77
Market Implied Growth Rate 0.70%
Current Price $59.08
% of Intrinsic Value 25.69%

AMC NETWORKS INC Common Stock does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.95 in 2014 to an estimated $5.97 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.7% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into AMC NETWORKS INC Common Stock revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $18.93. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 9.89, which was below the industry average of 38.81, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-48.

AMC NETWORKS INC Common Stock receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$48.00
Graham Number $18.93
PEmg 9.89
Current Ratio 2.64
PB Ratio 13.96
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,889,454,000
Total Current Liabilities $715,666,000
Long-Term Debt $3,101,138,000
Total Assets $5,113,367,000
Intangible Assets $2,439,638,000
Total Liabilities $4,852,256,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 61,719,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.21
Dec2017 $7.18
Dec2016 $3.74
Dec2015 $5.01
Dec2014 $3.58
Dec2013 $4.00
Dec2012 $1.89
Dec2011 $1.79
Dec2010 $1.16

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.97
Dec2017 $5.14
Dec2016 $3.96
Dec2015 $3.80
Dec2014 $2.95
Dec2013 $2.35
Dec2012 $1.34
Dec2011 $0.91
Dec2010 $0.39

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

AMC Networks Inc Valuation – December 2016 $AMCX
AMC Networks Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AMCX

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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