Canadian Oil & Gas Stocks

Inter Pipeline Ltd Valuation – July 2018 $TSE:IPL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Inter Pipeline Ltd. is a petroleum transportation, storage and natural gas liquids processing business. The Company’s segments include oil sands transportation business, conventional oil pipelines business, natural gas liquids (NGL) processing business and bulk liquid storage business. The Company geographical segments include Canada and Europe. The oil sands transportation business consists of the Cold Lake, Corridor and Polaris pipeline systems that transport petroleum products and provide related blending and handling services in Alberta. The conventional oil pipelines business involves the transportation, storage and processing of hydrocarbons, as well as midstream marketing blending and handling services. The NGL processing business consists of processing natural gas to extract NGLs and the processing of oil sands upgrader off gas to extract an NGL and olefin mix. The bulk liquid storage business involves the storage and handling of bulk liquid products.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSX-IPL – July 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,415,412,517 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.15 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 65.61% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.90 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.62 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.15 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -2.33 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.37
MG Growth Estimate 14.17%
MG Value $50.36
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $19.82
MG Value based on 0% Growth $11.62
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.70%
Current Price $24.47
% of Intrinsic Value 48.59%

Inter Pipeline Ltd does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.7 in 2014 to an estimated $1.37 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.7% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Inter Pipeline Ltd revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $17.37. The company pays a dividend of $1.63 per share, for a yield of 6.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.9, which was below the industry average of 49.12, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.32.

Inter Pipeline Ltd receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.32
Graham Number $17.37
PEmg 17.90
Current Ratio 0.15
PB Ratio 2.62
Current Dividend $1.63
Dividend Yield 6.66%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 9

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $299,500,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,965,500,000
Long-Term Debt $3,889,800,000
Total Assets $10,496,300,000
Intangible Assets $661,900,000
Total Liabilities $6,920,300,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 382,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.47
Dec2017 $1.41
Dec2016 $1.31
Dec2015 $1.28
Dec2014 $1.02
Dec2013 -$0.20
Dec2012 $1.14
Dec2011 $0.95
Dec2010 $0.92
Dec2009 $0.66
Dec2008 $1.12
Dec2007 -$0.39
Dec2006 $0.65
Dec2005 $0.48
Dec2004 $0.52
Dec2003 $0.13
Dec2002 $0.28
Dec2001 $0.11
Dec2000 $0.12
Dec1999 -$0.01
Dec1998 $0.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.37
Dec2017 $1.20
Dec2016 $1.03
Dec2015 $0.87
Dec2014 $0.70
Dec2013 $0.59
Dec2012 $0.98
Dec2011 $0.82
Dec2010 $0.70
Dec2009 $0.56
Dec2008 $0.50
Dec2007 $0.22
Dec2006 $0.48
Dec2005 $0.37
Dec2004 $0.29
Dec2003 $0.16
Dec2002 $0.15

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Inter Pipeline Ltd Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:IPL

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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