Stocks Telecom

Iridium Communications Inc Valuation – July 2018 $IRDM

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Iridium Communications Inc., incorporated on November 2, 2007, is engaged in providing global satellite communications services and products. The Company offers mobile voice and data communications services through satellite, and provides communications services offering true global coverage. The Company provides services to businesses, the United States and foreign governments, non-governmental organizations and consumers through its satellite network, which has over 70 in-orbit satellites with in orbit spares and related ground infrastructure. Its satellite network provides communications services to regions of the world, including remote land areas, open ocean, airways, the polar regions and regions where the telecommunications infrastructure has been affected by political conflicts or natural disasters. The Company utilizes mesh architecture to route traffic across its satellite constellation using radio frequency crosslinks between satellites. As of December 31, 2016, the Company sold its products and services to customers through a wholesale distribution network of approximately 65 service providers, approximately 195 value-added resellers (VARs) and approximately 80 value-added manufacturers (VAMs).

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of IRDM – July 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,948,404,840 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.68 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 20600.00% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 37.09 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.16 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.68 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 5.51 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.48
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $7.02
MG Value based on 0% Growth $4.11
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.29%
Current Price $17.95
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Iridium Communications Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.68 in 2014 to an estimated $0.48 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 14.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Iridium Communications Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 37.09, which was below the industry average of 38.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-18.51.

Iridium Communications Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$18.51
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 37.09
Current Ratio 2.68
PB Ratio 1.16
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $572,185,000
Total Current Liabilities $213,533,000
Long-Term Debt $1,977,884,000
Total Assets $4,111,781,000
Intangible Assets $49,652,000
Total Liabilities $2,503,563,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 104,345,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.64
Dec2017 $1.82
Dec2016 $0.89
Dec2015 -$0.09
Dec2014 $0.69
Dec2013 $0.71
Dec2012 $0.83
Dec2011 $0.56
Dec2010 $0.27
Dec2009 -$0.82
Dec2008 $0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.48
Dec2017 $0.97
Dec2016 $0.56
Dec2015 $0.44
Dec2014 $0.68
Dec2013 $0.55
Dec2012 $0.37
Dec2011 $0.10
Dec2010 -$0.12
Dec2009 -$0.26
Dec2008 $0.01

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Iridium Communications Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $IRDM

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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