Commercial Metals Co Valuation – July 2018 $CMC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Commercial Metals Company (CMC), incorporated on August 29, 1946, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in manufacturing, recycling and marketing steel and metal products, related materials and services through a network, including steel mills, such as minimills or micro-mills, steel fabrication and processing facilities, construction-related product warehouses, metal recycling facilities and marketing and distribution offices in the United States and in strategic international markets. The Company operates in five business segments across two geographic divisions, which include CMC Americas Division, which includes three segments, including Americas Recycling, Americas Mills and Americas Fabrication, and CMC International Division, which includes two segments, including International Mill, and International Marketing and Distribution.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMC – July 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,636,401,087 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.90 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -172.46% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 30.75 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.83 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.90 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.77 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.73
MG Growth Estimate 3.98%
MG Value $12.03
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $10.59
MG Value based on 0% Growth $6.21
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.13%
Current Price $22.47
% of Intrinsic Value 186.75%

Commercial Metals Company is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.58 in 2014 to an estimated $0.73 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.13% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Commercial Metals Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $17.61. The company pays a dividend of $0.48 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 30.75, which was below the industry average of 31.68, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $1.71.

Commercial Metals Company receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.71
Graham Number $17.61
PEmg 30.75
Current Ratio 3.90
PB Ratio 1.83
Current Dividend $0.48
Dividend Yield 2.14%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 5/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,994,956,000
Total Current Liabilities $511,936,000
Long-Term Debt $1,139,103,000
Total Assets $3,245,493,000
Intangible Assets $64,316,000
Total Liabilities $1,792,591,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 118,255,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.14
Aug2017 $0.39
Aug2016 $0.47
Aug2015 $0.67
Aug2014 $0.95
Aug2013 $0.66
Aug2012 $1.78
Aug2011 -$1.13
Aug2010 -$1.81
Aug2009 $0.18
Aug2008 $1.97
Aug2007 $2.92
Aug2006 $2.89
Aug2005 $2.32
Aug2004 $1.11
Aug2003 $0.17
Aug2002 $0.36
Aug2001 $0.23
Aug2000 $0.39
Aug1999 $0.40
Aug1998 $0.35

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.73
Aug2017 $0.56
Aug2016 $0.73
Aug2015 $0.77
Aug2014 $0.58
Aug2013 $0.24
Aug2012 $0.09
Aug2011 -$0.37
Aug2010 $0.42
Aug2009 $1.71
Aug2008 $2.40
Aug2007 $2.37
Aug2006 $1.85
Aug2005 $1.17
Aug2004 $0.54
Aug2003 $0.27
Aug2002 $0.33

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

15 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 1/14/17
Commercial Metals Company Valuation – Initial Coverage $CMC

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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