Mining Stocks

US Silica Holdings Inc Valuation – August 2018 $SLCA

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc., incorporated on November 14, 2008, is a domestic producer of commercial silica, a specialized mineral that is an input into a range of end markets. The Company operates in two segments: Oil & Gas Proppants, and Industrial & Specialty Products. In its end market, oil and gas proppants, its frac sand is used to stimulate and maintain the flow of hydrocarbons in oil and natural gas wells. Its silica is also used as an irreplaceable raw material in a range of industrial applications, including glassmaking and chemical manufacturing. The Company produces and sells a range of commercial silica products, including whole grain and ground products, as well as other industrial mineral products.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SLCA – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,006,737,283 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.16 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 275.79% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.60 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.16 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.11 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.33
MG Growth Estimate -1.82%
MG Value $6.48
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $19.35
MG Value based on 0% Growth $11.34
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.85%
Current Price $26.96
% of Intrinsic Value 416.18%

U.S. Silica Holdings Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.52 in 2014 to an estimated $1.33 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.85% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into U.S. Silica Holdings Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $30.79. The company pays a dividend of $0.25 per share, for a yield of 0.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.2, which was below the industry average of 53.66, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.53.

U.S. Silica Holdings Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.53
Graham Number $30.79
PEmg 20.20
Current Ratio 3.16
PB Ratio 1.60
Current Dividend $0.25
Dividend Yield 0.93%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $670,389,000
Total Current Liabilities $211,994,000
Long-Term Debt $506,607,000
Total Assets $2,307,038,000
Intangible Assets $423,581,000
Total Liabilities $954,055,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 80,309,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.43
Dec2017 $1.77
Dec2016 -$0.63
Dec2015 $0.22
Dec2014 $2.24
Dec2013 $1.41
Dec2012 $1.50
Dec2011 $0.61
Dec2010 $0.23
Dec2009 $0.11

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.33
Dec2017 $0.86
Dec2016 $0.58
Dec2015 $1.19
Dec2014 $1.52
Dec2013 $1.03
Dec2012 $0.72
Dec2011 $0.29
Dec2010 $0.11
Dec2009 $0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

U.S. Silica Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SLCA

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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