Media Entertainment Stocks

Cinemark Holdings Inc Valuation – August 2018 $CNK

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (Cinemark), incorporated on August 2, 2006, is engaged in the motion picture exhibition business with theatres in the United States (U.S.), Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, Paraguay, Curacao and Bolivia. The Company manages its business in two segments: U.S. markets and international markets. The international segment consists of operations in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, Bolivia, Curacao and Paraguay. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 526 theatres and 5,903 screens in the United States and Latin America. As of December 31, 2016, its the United States circuit had 339 theatres and 4,559 screens in 41 states and its international circuit had 187 theatres and 1,344 screens in 15 countries. It develops new platforms for its theatre circuit, such as XD, Cinemark Reserve, Luxury Lounger reclining seats, CineArts and other concepts. It plays mainstream films from various genres, such as animated films, family films, dramas, comedies, horror and action films. It offers content in both two-dimension (2D) and three-dimension (3D) formats in all of its theatres.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CNK – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,251,249,242 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.53 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 93.64% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.54 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.83 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.53 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 8.69 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.05
MG Growth Estimate 6.53%
MG Value $44.12
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $29.69
MG Value based on 0% Growth $17.40
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.52%
Current Price $35.92
% of Intrinsic Value 81.41%

Cinemark Holdings, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.43 in 2014 to an estimated $2.05 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Cinemark Holdings, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $22.88. The company pays a dividend of $1.16 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.54, which was below the industry average of 38.97, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-20.23.

Cinemark Holdings, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.23
Graham Number $22.88
PEmg 17.54
Current Ratio 1.53
PB Ratio 2.83
Current Dividend $1.16
Dividend Yield 3.23%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $591,740,000
Total Current Liabilities $387,349,000
Long-Term Debt $1,775,252,000
Total Assets $4,413,471,000
Intangible Assets $1,619,109,000
Total Liabilities $2,941,480,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 116,143,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.94
Dec2017 $2.26
Dec2016 $2.19
Dec2015 $1.87
Dec2014 $1.66
Dec2013 $1.28
Dec2012 $1.47
Dec2011 $1.14
Dec2010 $1.29
Dec2009 $0.87
Dec2008 -$0.45
Dec2007 $0.85
Dec2006 $0.01
Dec2005 -$0.31
Dec2004 -$0.13
Dec2003 $0.37
Dec2002 $0.30

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.05
Dec2017 $2.02
Dec2016 $1.83
Dec2015 $1.59
Dec2014 $1.43
Dec2013 $1.28
Dec2012 $1.14
Dec2011 $0.89
Dec2010 $0.69
Dec2009 $0.32
Dec2008 $0.03
Dec2007 $0.23
Dec2006 -$0.04
Dec2005 -$0.02
Dec2004 $0.12
Dec2003 $0.20
Dec2002 $0.10

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

4 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 1/28/17
Cinemark Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CNK

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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