IT Hardware Stocks

Teradata Corp Valuation – August 2018 $TDC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Teradata Corporation, incorporated on March 27, 2007, is a provider of analytic data platforms, analytic applications and related services. The Company’s segments include Americas region (North America and Latin America) and International region (Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific and Japan). The Company’s offerings include analytics solutions, ecosystem architecture consulting and hybrid cloud solutions. These solutions include software and hardware technology components, such as data warehousing, big data, and tools for data integration, data discovery and business intelligence.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TDC – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,724,002,779 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.68 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -69.13% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 95.85 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.29 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.68 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.74 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.40
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $5.85
MG Value based on 0% Growth $3.43
Market Implied Growth Rate 43.68%
Current Price $38.66
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Teradata Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.26 in 2014 to an estimated $0.4 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 43.68% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Teradata Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $12.21. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 95.85, which was above the industry average of 53.7. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-1.49.

Teradata Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.49
Graham Number $12.21
PEmg 95.85
Current Ratio 1.68
PB Ratio 7.29
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,530,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $913,000,000
Long-Term Debt $456,000,000
Total Assets $2,355,000,000
Intangible Assets $529,000,000
Total Liabilities $1,711,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 121,400,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.21
Dec2017 -$0.53
Dec2016 $0.95
Dec2015 -$1.53
Dec2014 $2.33
Dec2013 $2.27
Dec2012 $2.44
Dec2011 $2.05
Dec2010 $1.77
Dec2009 $1.46
Dec2008 $1.39
Dec2007 $1.10
Dec2006 $1.06
Dec2005 $1.14
Dec2004 $0.76
Dec2003 $0.50

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.40
Dec2017 $0.23
Dec2016 $0.84
Dec2015 $1.03
Dec2014 $2.26
Dec2013 $2.15
Dec2012 $2.00
Dec2011 $1.71
Dec2010 $1.47
Dec2009 $1.29
Dec2008 $1.17
Dec2007 $1.01
Dec2006 $0.88
Dec2005 $0.68
Dec2004 $0.39
Dec2003 $0.17

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 of the Worst Stocks to Invest In – February 2017
Teradata Corp Valuation – January 2017 $TDC
Teradata Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $TDC
The 6 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 6/13/15
Teradata Corporation Analysis – June 2015 Update $TDC

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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