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Food Processing Stocks

J&J Snack Foods Corp Valuation – August 2018 $JJSF

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): J & J Snack Foods Corp., incorporated in 1971, is a manufacturer, marketer and distributor of a range of snack foods and beverages for the food service and retail supermarket industries. The Company serves both national and international markets. It operates in three business segments: Food Service, Retail Supermarkets and Frozen Beverages. The Company’s portfolio of products includes soft pretzels, frozen beverages, frozen juice treats and desserts, stuffed sandwiches, burritos, churros, fruit pies, funnel cakes, cookies and bakery goods, and other snack foods and drinks. Its principal snack food products are soft pretzels marketed primarily under the brand names SUPERPRETZEL and BAVARIAN BAKERY; frozen juice treats and desserts marketed primarily under the LUIGI’S, WHOLE FRUIT, ICEE, PHILLY SWIRL and MINUTE MAID brand names; churros marketed primarily under the TIO PEPE’S, CALIFORNIA CHURROS and OREO brand names, and bakery products sold primarily under the READI-BAKE, COUNTRY HOME, MARY B’S and DADDY RAY’S brand names, as well as for private label and contract packing.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of JJSF – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,714,691,536 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.09 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 79.30% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 31.07 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.61 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.09 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.55
MG Growth Estimate 5.58%
MG Value $89.44
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $65.99
MG Value based on 0% Growth $38.69
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.29%
Current Price $141.41
% of Intrinsic Value 158.11%

J & J Snack Foods Corp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.32 in 2014 to an estimated $4.55 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into J & J Snack Foods Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $67.88. The company pays a dividend of $1.68 per share, for a yield of 1.2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 31.07, which was above the industry average of 26.3. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $10.87.

J & J Snack Foods Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $10.87
Graham Number $67.88
PEmg 31.07
Current Ratio 3.09
PB Ratio 3.61
Current Dividend $1.68
Dividend Yield 1.19%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 13

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $380,726,000
Total Current Liabilities $123,086,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $914,232,000
Intangible Assets $161,157,000
Total Liabilities $176,157,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 18,822,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.60
Sep2017 $4.21
Sep2016 $4.05
Sep2015 $3.73
Sep2014 $3.82
Sep2013 $3.41
Sep2012 $2.86
Sep2011 $2.93
Sep2010 $2.59
Sep2009 $2.21
Sep2008 $1.47
Sep2007 $1.69
Sep2006 $1.57
Sep2005 $1.40
Sep2004 $1.24
Sep2003 $1.10
Sep2002 $1.00
Sep2001 $0.68
Sep2000 $0.55
Sep1999 $0.75
Sep1998 $0.63

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.55
Sep2017 $3.97
Sep2016 $3.75
Sep2015 $3.52
Sep2014 $3.32
Sep2013 $2.98
Sep2012 $2.65
Sep2011 $2.42
Sep2010 $2.08
Sep2009 $1.77
Sep2008 $1.52
Sep2007 $1.50
Sep2006 $1.36
Sep2005 $1.20
Sep2004 $1.03
Sep2003 $0.89
Sep2002 $0.77

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

J&J Snack Foods Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $JJSF

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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